There is only one question about the state of the SNP: whether its decline will be “gradual” or “severe and speedy”, Express.co.uk has been told. Humza Yousaf is now little more than a week into his tenure having beaten Kate Forbes by a slim margin, taking just 52 percent of the vote to her 48 percent. Already, the pollsters are predicting that almost forgotten parties like Scottish Labour now have an opportunity to rekindle their forces and snatch back lost seats.
James Mitchell, a professor of Public Policy at the University of Edinburgh for the past 30 years, explained that the leadership contest highlighted issues in an SNP that was already looking vulnerable before Nicola Sturgeon resigned.
The former First Minister of eight years had faced criticism over the gender recognition laws that were severely unpopular with the majority of Scots. Independence, too, had been put on the back burner despite it being “the main reason people join and remain members of the SNP” before her resignation in February.
He told Express.co.uk: “There was evidence that the SNP was beginning to look vulnerable before [Ms Sturgeon] resigned. It was obvious that it had made no progress in advancing its goal of independence.”
The “robust disagreements or frank exchanges” of the leadership contest saw Ms Forbes slam Mr Yousaf for having a “mediocre” record and attack his capabilities as health secretary.
The SNP also faced drama during the leadership campaign when it was revealed that the number of members eligible to vote had fallen to a little over 72,000, far lower than previous estimates, which ultimately resulted in the head of communications, Murray Foote, resigning.
Ms Forbes’s approach was widely noted as having likely damaged the party for years to come, described by Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross as “torching” the Scottish government’s record and giving their opponents “so much ammunition to attack” them with.
Professor Mitchell noted that the “leadership contest highlighted and deepened existing frustrations and criticisms,” and that now, “Scottish Labour looks and sounds more confident than it has done since 2007.
Crucially, he added: “It is very clear that the SNP is now very much on the defensive and will lose seats at the next UK election. It seems most likely that we are only beginning to see its decline.”
Chris Deerin, Scotland editor of the New Statesman, said in the magazine’s podcast last week the challenge that now faces Mr Yousaf is to not only persuade the “non-plussed” electorate but his own party.
It is possible to win by a narrow majority and reach out to others, attempting to prove himself to be a “healer”, Professor Mitchell explained. “Indeed, it makes sense to reach out when the margin of victory is slight,” he said.
However, he added that it is “clear” that Mr Yousaf has not done this.
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Although Mr Yousaf told the nation in his winning speech that ‘‘we are no longer team Humza, Ash or Kate, we are one team, and we will be the team, we will be the generation that delivers independence for Scotland”, Prof Mitchell explained that both his Cabinet and government are “team Humza”.
“This has clearly angered many who assumed he would be more open and it will cause him difficulty,” he added.
Following his victory, Mr Yousaf offered Ms Forbes — who was the general public’s favoured candidate — the role of Rural Affairs, a demotion from her previous role as Finance Secretary. She rejected the job offer, instead tendering her resignation.
The move was described by Scottish Conservative chairman Craig Hoy MSP as pouring “petrol on the SNP civil war”. He added: “Kate Forbes’s furious snub to his offer of a cabinet demotion shows his mission to reunite their feuding party is doomed to failure.”
Ms Forbes later tweeted that Mr Yousaf had her “full support” and said she had “full confidence” his cabinet and the ministerial team would meet the “challenges facing the country”.
Mr Yousaf has also pledged to shift the independence campaign into “fifth gear”, but critics say he should focus on uniting the SNP which “disagrees” on “so much” including how independence can be secured.
Mr Deerin added: “The party is divided. Without a charismatic and controlling leader, those divisions will be quite easily displayed.”
Similarly, Alex Salmond told STV news in the wake of the result that the most important thing the new leader needs to do out of the “huge challenges” he faces is reuniting his party.
Prof Mitchell said halting the decline of the SNP can only be achieved if “everyday matters” are improved as its record across devolved competencies is poor (education, health, transport, and the economy). “Continuity”, as Ms Forbes highlighted during the leadership debate, will not “cut it”.
Prof Mitchell added: “The new First Minister needs to focus on improving the SNP’s record in government and restoring people’s belief in its competence. Far more attention will need to be paid to everyday matters if the SNP is to stop the slide.
“The challenges he faces are considerable: advancing the cause of independence, uniting a party that is very unhappy, and leading a competent government… Continuity would mean no progress on independence which will frustrate SNP members and lead to a less-than-competent government.
“Sturgeon’s resignation brought this all to the surface and this will not go away. The only question is whether the decline will be gradual and can be contained to any extent severe and speedy.”
