A new poll has confirmed the danger posed to the Tories by a comeback by Nigel Farage to frontline politics.
The weekly tracker Techne UK poll has given his Reform UK its highest rating since it started measuring for the party at the start of the year with 9 percent, up one point from last week.
It means that even without Mr Farage at its head, Reform UK is now eating into the Conservative vote – making a fightback by the beleaguered Prime Minister Rishi Sunak much more difficult.
Express.co.uk was invited to a private party of friends and family welcoming Mr Farage back from Australia after his highly successful jaunt in the jungle on ITV’s I’m A Celebrity…Get Me Out of Here!
While the former Brexit Party and UK Independence Party leader was not elaborating on his political future for now, sources have suggested he could be ready to make a big announcement in the new year.
The poll actually saw Labour’s lead over the Tories drop one point despite a turbulent week for Mr Sunak, who narrowly avoided a humiliating defeat on his Rwanda Bill on Tuesday.
Among those who say how they will vote, Labour were 22 points ahead on 44 percent (down 1) while the Conservatives remained the same on 22 percent, the Lib Dems were unchanged on 12 percent and Greens were also unchanged on 7 percent.
If the poll was to be replicated at a general election, the prediction website Electoral Calculus suggests that the Conservatives would have easily the worst result in their 345-year history on 85 seats, while Labour would enjoy a majority of 314.
Meanwhile, Reform UK leader Richard Tice believes that the Techne UK result could be underestimating his party’s popularity.
He said: “Some polls have us on 12 percent now and I think that is only going to grow.
“If Nigel comes back, then I think that will be worth another three or four points and will put us in the mid teens, with the Tories only just ahead in the late teens.”
Mr Tice added that his party’s aim was “to wipe the Tories out and [ultimately] replace them”.
Tory MPs have admitted they now expect Mr Farage to make a comeback after coming third on I’m A Celebrity and wowing a new audience.
Mr Farage told friends: “It turns out I’m more popular than ever.”
One Conservative said: “If he does come back then there is no chance for me and many of my colleagues, we really will be wiped out.”
Another added: “We all expect it to happen but I’m afraid it is what we deserve after this [the Rwanda Bill] fiasco.”
More worryingly for the Conservatives from the Techne UK poll of 1,637 voters is the continued confirmation that they have lost more than half of their 2019 general election support.
According to this week’s findings, only 43 percent now would vote Tory from that group, with 14 percent going to Reform UK and another 14 percent going to Labour. Another 11 percent would not vote.
Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “This is always a very difficult time in the political calendar. As Christmas fast approaches and politicians leave for their festive recess, it is right that attention turns away from the political debate.
“Our tracker poll this week sees the Labour vote drop by one point of national vote share to 44 percent. However, with the Conservatives static on 22 percent of national vote share the Labour lead remains dominant at 22 points. The real story, though, seems to be the onward progress of Richard Tice’s Reform UK – who grow with an increase of one point to 9 percent.
“With the new year beckoning and with Reform UK growing in support consistently, at the expense of the Conservatives, it will be very interesting to see where Nigel Farage gives his further support when Parliament returns at the beginning of 2024.”
