Britain is about to embark on two of its coldest and most chaotic months for the risk of snow and unsettled conditions. The Met Office has confirmed that the chance of wintry showers remains “increasingly likely” as January arrives, just days away.
January and February are the months in which snow is more likely, pipping Christmas and December. It is the period when the Beast from the East hit hardest in February 2018. And with forecasters looking ahead to the next fortnight, there are signals of a colder change on the horizon.
While with every forecast there is a lack of confidence about predictions more than five days away, Nick Silkstone, a Met Office deputy chief forecaster, said: “Through to mid-January, there is a signal for a shift in the pattern compared to the winter so far, with more settled and colder-than-average conditions becoming increasingly likely.”
Usually, settled conditions bring an onset of colder air from the east, which in turn could bring temperatures down to sub-zero levels – bringing about icy conditions and causing rain to fall as snow.
Typically, Scotland and northern England are the regions where snow is likely to settle, but one meteorologist told Express.co.uk that the South might not escape the white stuff.
Jim Dale, a senior meteorologist for British Weather Services, said: “Expectation is indeed for colder weather, but it is likely well before mid-month. However, there are plenty of conflicting pointers, so confidence cannot be too high at this point.
“Nevertheless, I do expect snow and ice events to gradually cascade southwards at the end of the first week of January.” When asked exactly how cold and potentially hazardous the mercury could get, Mr Dale remained optimistic.
He added: “There will be no beast as such, more a northern Troll from Trondheim. I expect Scotland to be fairly loaded, some chaos for parts of the North and, at the moment, a dusting of less for the South. The caveat is, we haven’t yet seen the whites of the Troll’s eyes yet.”
Weather maps show a vertical band of rain, stretching from Scotland to Kent, falling as snow late on Sunday, January 7 for much of the North. However, at the moment, it looks as though only rural, higher ground will get a coating.
Temperatures will remain marginally normal for the time of year, however, with the South set to record standard thermometer readings of about 7C.
But from January 11 conditions could start to worsen, with the South straddling freezing from midnight and only recovering to about 3C during the late morning. Meanwhile, Scotland will alternate between -1C, 0C and 1C, depending on the area.
Midday is when maps show an icy deluge pushing southwards over the country, with some isolated areas getting bouts of freezing rain among snow showers. While regions south of Manchester remain unscathed, there is always room for change as confidence strengthens over the forecasts.
From January 2 to 11, the Met Office long-range forecast says: “During this time there is a good chance that many central areas may remain relatively fine for a number of days. Thereafter, more settled and calmer conditions are expected to gradually develop quite widely, increasing the risk of frost and fog.
“This would also lead to day on day net cooling eventually bringing below average temperatures for many, with an increased threat of winter hazards, including ice/snow if any precipitation runs into the cold air in place over land.”
Looking even further ahead, the forecast from January 12 to 26 adds: “Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period, and a reduced chance of prolonged periods of very unsettled/milder conditions with frequent rain and wind pushing in from the Atlantic.
“Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.”
