Alexander Lukashenko was an unlikely winner from the fallout that occurred in Russia over the weekend.
As the Wagner Group marched on Moscow, Russia’s capital, after taking the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, its chief, Yevgeny Prigohzin, unexpectedly reached an agreement to turn his troops around.
The deal brokered initially saw Vladimir Putin drop criminal charges against Prigozhin — although reports suggest this may now not be the case — in exchange for his exile to Belarus.
As a result, Lukashenko was painted by his propagandists as a hero who stopped a Russian civil war.
Whether that status stands up inside Belarus is up for debate. One former diplomat who served Lukashenko previously told Express.co.uk that people in the country are patiently “waiting” for their time to overthrow the dictator.
Valery Kavaleuski worked in the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 1998 to 2006 before resigning in protest after Lukashenko secured a third term in the controversial 2006 elections.
He said he believed Lukashenko was “aware” that Belarusians could “erupt” against him, telling Express.co.uk: “He knows well that Belarusians have not given up on the idea of getting rid of him and bringing democracy to Belarus.
“So people are now in the waiting mode. They’re waiting for the chance to come back to the same activity they had, kind of we want to get rid of Lukashenko and we want to take power back to people.”
Mr Kavaleuski is part of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus, the country’s government in exile, headed by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
Ms Tsikhanouskaya is widely seen as the rightful winner of the 2020 elections in Belarus, in which Lukashenko sought his sixth term in office.
The result of that election, which many believe Lukashenko rigged in his favour, saw a series of mass nationwide protests break out, and is what Mr Kavaleuski believes Lukashenko fears may happen again.
The protests were violently crushed by authorities. A statement by the United Nations Human Rights Office cited more than 450 documented cases of torture and ill-treatment of detainees, as well as reports of sexual abuse and rape. At the end of 2020, the Viasna Human Rights Centre documented 1,000 testimonies of torture victims.
But Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst, believes local Belarusian people aren’t all that interested in revolution today.
He told the Economist that Belarusians have taken note that Lukashenko has managed to avoid mobilisation for the Ukraine war and domestic protest, all while consolidating his power.
Through this, Mr Shraibman said, Lukashenko’s popularity had actually increased because he has kept Belarusians out of the war.
Consistent polling shows that Belarusians are averse to the war. Some figures suggest that as much as 86 per cent of the population don’t want their country to enter it.
But the experts say this is less to do with support for Ukraine and more with Belarusians fearing the devastation of their own country. For the most part, the people simply want to maintain neutrality.
