Britain’s top pollster has predicted Labour is almost certain to take power at the next general election.
Professor Sir John Curtice said there is a “99% chance of Labour forming the next administration”.
He told Politico’s Playbook: “It’s clearly a very small chance that the Tories are going to be in government after the autumn.”
Sir John said Sir Keir Starmer’s party has the best chance of forming a government in the event no one wins a majority.
He said: “The Labour Party will be in a much stronger position to negotiate a minority government than the Conservatives because, apart from possibly the DUP, the Conservatives have no friends in the House of Commons.”
It comes as Labour has maintained a double-digit lead over Rishi Sunak’s party in national polling.
The latest survey by Savanta put the Opposition 20 points ahead of the Conservatives on 44%.
The Tories are on 24% in the lowest vote share the company has recorded for the party since October 2022 in the aftermath of Liz Truss’s mini-budget.
Nigel Farage-linked Reform UK is on 11% in the highest ever score by Savanta, which polled 2,216 British adults from March 22-24.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta said: “Not since the lowest point of the Liz Truss administration, in the bloody aftermath of her mini-budget and Kwasi Kwarteng’s resignation, have we recorded the Conservative Party vote share this low. With the Conservatives continuing to drop in the polls, Savanta has recorded its biggest Labour lead since September 2023.
“Reform UK’s high watermark from our most recent poll appears to be holding, and Labour’s vote share appears to be holding firm.
“It is hard to envision, but there is no reason why things can’t get even worse for Rishi Sunak in the coming weeks.
“That being said, it doesn’t look like there any readymade alternatives for the Conservatives to avoid electoral wipeout.”
