A latest poll by Europe Elects has sent shockwaves through the European political landscape, revealing a significant surge in support for the right-wing Identity and Democracy (ID) group ahead of the 2024 European elections.
The projections indicate that the ID group is now poised to become the fourth-largest in the European Parliament, with 87 seats – a historic high for the party.
The rise of the ID group has implications for the balance of power within the EU, as it overtakes the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) for the first time since June 2021.
The ECR group itself has experienced a modest increase, securing a total of 82 seats.
The gains for the ID group can be attributed to several factors across European member states. In the Netherlands, the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) outperformed expectations, securing five more seats than projected. In France, Rassemblement National (RN) is up by three seats, while in Bulgaria, Възраждане (V) has aligned with the ID group, altering projections. However, the German Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has faced a setback, losing two seats compared to the previous month.
Reacting to the poll results, Connor Allen, former European Parliament Head of the Leaders Office, warned that the surge of the far-right should not come as a surprise to those closely following European politics.
Mr Allen said: “Most in Brussels will react with profound shock to this – but the signs have been there for so long. The EU mainstream has its headspace in 2019, immediately after the so-called ‘green wave’ hit. But citizens are not there. Far from it. There is no more green mandate.”
Meanwhile, ID leader Marco Zanni addressed the anticipated criticism from europhiles, writing on X: “Europhiles will be scathing. They talk about ‘flops,’ as they have been telling you for years that we are finished, that we don’t count, etc.
“Meanwhile, the latest polls tell a different story.”
