Western intelligence is scrambling to find Vladimir Putin’s tactical nuclear weapons some of which he supposedly moved to Russia’s neighbour Belarus.
There are fears that Belarus – a key Russian ally – could serve as a staging ground for exiled Wagner mercenaries while Putin puts nukes in the country. So far, there is no sign of either.
“It could happen that Wagner PMC decides not to relocate here,” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday. He also sparked confusion when he told reporters that Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin had gone back to Russia despite gaining immunity in a deal that would see him live in Belarus.
Putin said in June that facilities which would house tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus would be ready by July 7 – he also claimed that some of the weapons have already been transferred to the country.
But Western officials told CNN that Belarus does not appear to have the infrastructure to store such weapons and it would likely take months to get the country’s facilities up to scratch.
In addition, satellite imagery does not appear to show the type of security presence which would be typical at a Russian nuclear weapons facility.
“We are in this fog of Russian mirrors. What actions will Putin take? We don’t know,” said Max Bergmann, the director of Russian and European studies at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies told the outlet.
He added: “Putin does not need tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus to use those weapons. But it is concerning to the US that tactical nuclear weapons could potentially be co-located in Belarus with Wagner fighters. That said, it seems there is a long way to go before we would even get there.”
Still, even without any sign of Wagner fighters or nukes, European countries on NATO’s frontlines aren’t taking any chances.
Neighbouring Poland has asked the EU for more funding to bolster its border security while Latvia’s prime minister warned Wagner could try to infiltrate Europe using Belarus as a springboard.
The news comes ahead of a NATO summit in Vilnius, Latvia this month which is expected to be dominated by Russia and the war in Ukraine.
Member countries, particularly in the east, will have a close eye on Belarus which could become a flashpoint amid sky-high tensions between Russia and the West.
