The ISW says in its report: “Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are preparing to launch a new offensive in the coming weeks once the ground freezes in eastern and southern Ukraine.
“Russian literary critic and alternative historian Sergey Pereslegin claimed on January 12 that Russian forces will launch a large-scale offensive effort in Ukraine sometime between January 12 and February 2 after the ground freezes and likely after Ukrainian forces grow ‘exhausted’ of defending their positions in Avdiivka and east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
“Pereslegin claimed that Russians should be more concerned about Russia launching its offensive at the wrong time or making the same “mistakes” that Ukraine made during its 2023 counteroffensive than of a renewed Ukrainian offensive effort in 2024.”
While Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to strike a decisive blow against Ukraine, Kyiv’s forces have put a big dent in Moscow’s military.
Ukraine claimed on Monday that it shot down a high-value Russian aircraft over the Sea of Azov.
Russia’s A-50 aircraft was reportedly downed. It has a crew of about 15 people and it’s thought to be worth around $330m (£260m).
Commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi said on Telegram: “I am grateful to the Air Force for the perfectly planned and conducted operation in the Azov Sea area.”
Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, said if confirmed the aircraft losses should “seriously complicate Russian aircraft operations close to the battlefield”.
He said on X: “And if these were shot down by Patriots over the Sea of Azov, would have meant that they would have been brought very close to the front lines. Quite an operation.”
As fighting in Ukraine is expected to ramp up, President Volodymyr Zelensky is headed for the World Economic Forum in Davos to drum up more support for Ukraine.
Zelensky has previously said that the new conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has diverted attention away from the Ukrainian cause.
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