Russia is getting the upper hand on Ukraine as it has enforced a war economy while Kyiv is struggling to secure precious aid from the West, a retired Army officer has warned.
Major General Mick Ryan, who served in the Australian army for 35 years, warned Vladimir Putin’s military has likely “moved ahead of the West” in areas such as the mobilisation of the Russian industry and drone warfare.
If the Kremlin managed to “outlearn” Ukraine and NATO, the war would inevitably be won by Putin, Mak Gen Ryan believes.
He told Forces.net: “What we’ve seen, I believe, over the last 18 months, is the Russians have not been as good at the lower-level adaptation because they centralise command and control.
“What the Russians have done, however, is moved ahead of the West in things like mobilising their industry.
“They did that on September 22, 2022, with that partial mobilisation directive. Everyone looked at the conscript mobilisation but embedded in there was mobilisation of industry. So, they’re a year ahead of us at least.”
In September 2022, Putin placed Russians and their economy on a wartime footing as he announced a partial mobilisation in Russia.
The move prompted 300,000 Russian citizens in the military reserves called up to fight in Ukraine. But it also meant the Kremlin started scaling up production of artillery and drones.
It can also count on deliveries from Iran, which has been selling Moscow its devastating Shahed drones used in Ukraine, and since last September from North Korea, which in turn is believed to be receiving the technology it needs to advance its weapons development.
The use of unmanned vehicles, both aircraft and boats, has granted Ukraine a series of victorious strikes in Crimea, Russia and on the battlefield.
But should Russia master the art of drone fighting and find a technology able to fully deceive Ukrainian air defences, Kyiv would face a disaster.
To prevent Russia from gaining supremacy on the battlefield, NATO must share with Kyiv its most up-to-date training and warfighting lessons to make Ukrainian soldiers fit to counter the Russian military, Maj Gen Ryan believes.
Moreover, Kyiv should have more of a say on what weapons or tactics it is given, the retired officer added.
Western allies were slower than Ukraine would have wanted with the delivery of long-range missiles, which have proven to be useful in Kyiv’s attacks on the Crimean peninsula.
