Russia has lost almost 3,000 tanks since Vladimir Putin ordered his full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago, a new report has indicated.
But a former British Army officer has said it would be a mistake to conclude therefore Putin was losing the war, pointing out that his regime has at its disposal “enormous reserves of manpower”.
The figures were revealed in open-source assessment of the military forces, personnel numbers, equipment inventories and defence economics of over 170 countries, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) this week and entitled The Military Balance 2024.
In his introduction, editor Robert Wall warned that threats to the rules-based order had “intensified” over the last year, prompting governments to reassess security priorities, defence spending and equipment plans.
There was also rising concern about defence-industrial capacities and a realisation that modernisation efforts needed to balance maintaining traditional capacities, such as artillery, with embracing newer technologies, such as uninhabited systems and high-speed weapons, Mr Wall argued.
The deteriorating security environment was exemplified by conflicts including the Hamas–Israel war, Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, and Azerbaijan’s takeover of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, as well as coups in Niger and Gabon; China’s bullish stance on Taiwan and the South China Sea and elsewhere; and attacks on critical national infrastructure, including a gas pipeline and data cables in the Baltic Sea.
Mr Wall continued:”Russia has lost over 2,900 main battle tanks since launching its full-scale war on Ukraine, about as many as it had in active inventory at the outset of the operation.
“Moscow has been able to trade quality for quantity though, by pulling thousands of older tanks out of storage at a rate that may, at times, have reached 90 tanks per month.
“Russia’s stored equipment inventories mean Moscow could potentially sustain around three more years of heavy losses and replenish tanks from stocks, even if at lower technical standard, irrespective of its ability to produce new equipment.”
Ukraine too had suffered “heavy losses” since Putin’s invasion on February 24, 2022, even if Western replenishments had allowed the country to “broadly sustain its inventory size” while upgrading equipment quality, Mr Wall added.
He said: “The situation underscored a growing feeling of a stalemate in the fighting that may persist through 2024.
“Russia’s aggression spurred European countries to boost defence spending and has strengthened NATO, with Finland adding combat power and experience in societal-resilience plans.
“NATO member states’ defence spending, dominated by the United States, has risen to about 50 percent of the global total.
“Adding the defence budgets of China, Russia and India brings the collective total to more than 70 percent of global military spending.”
Lt Col Stuart Crawford, who served in the 4th Royal Tank Regiment, told Express.co.uk the Allies lost roughly the same number in three months in the Normandy campaign between June and August 1944.
He continued: “My perception is that Russia isn’t losing at the moment, anyway, despite the loss of another Black Sea Fleet ship last night.
“Indications are that Russian tank production can keep up with their losses for now and they’re on target to out-produce Ukraine and the West in terms of munitions this year, if they’re not doing so already. Plus they have enormous reserves of manpower.”
Lt Col Crawford warned: “I wouldn’t be surprised if they have another go at capturing Kyiv and replacing the Ukrainian government later this year.”
