The United States has been put on high alert after a survey of international analysts argued a flare-up in tensions with China is “likely” to happen within the next 12 months.
The experts have suggested Washington could be on track for a repeat of hostilities on par with the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995, which saw Beijing test missiles in waters surrounding the island.
Tensions between the US and China have surged in recent months as Beijing persists in fuelling fears of a possible invasion of Taiwan.
The Chinese Navy has also repeatedly clashed with the US and the Philippines over activities in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims overall virtual control over.
Now, a joint survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) of 52 US experts and 35 Taiwan experts highlighted international fears of an upcoming clash with China.
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The poll brought together 87 experts from the US and Taiwan to assess China’s strategy vis à vis Taiwan, warning of a possible crisis erupting within the next 12 months.
The experts argued current signals suggest the US may have to handle “a situation similar to the 1995/1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis.”
At the time, Beijing shot a series of missiles in waters around Taiwan following the visits of then-Taiwanese President Lee Teng Hui to the US.
Another round of rockets was then shot a few months later in what appeared to be an attempt to scare off voters ahead of national elections, resulting in the US deploying carrier groups to the region.
The experts also warned current trends suggest China would be able to impose a blockade of Taiwan – but cast doubt on whether an invasion would follow.
Of the analysts polled, 67 percent of the American experts and 57 percent of their Taiwanese counterparts believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is possible in 2024.
They cited China’s negative response to this month’s elections in Taiwan as well as persistent economic competition with the US as two key factors influencing their assessment.
Beijing strongly condemned the election of current vice president Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s leader and appears set to continue its policy of refusing to engage with the island’s government first set down following the election of the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen in 2016.
The survey’s results come as a delegation of members of Congress headed to Taiwan to “engage with senior officials and business leaders.”
China objects to any form of official contact between the US and Taiwan and responded to a 2022 visit by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with some of its largest military manoeuvres in years.
