A “proxy war” between China and the US over Taiwan could happen during the Biden presidency, a military analyst has told Express.co.uk. “China’s plan is to establish control, including by military means, over Taiwan no later than 2049 and more likely around 2024-2027 timeframe,” Rebekah Koffler, a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer said. Three forces could speed up China’s timeline – its increasing modernisation of its military capabilities, escalating tensions with the US over the downing of its suspected spy balloon and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In the event of an invasion, Koffler predicts the US would likely employ the same strategy as it has with regard to the Russia-Ukraine conflict – supplying the necessary military hardware to Taiwan.
“Depending on Washington and Beijing’s political will to use diplomacy and deterrence statecraft to prevent escalation and keep the conflict below the threshold of a direct military confrontation between China and the US, we may or may not see an all out war,” warned the military analyst.
“Probably and hopefully not, because neither side wants it, however neither side wants to compromise its security and policy objectives,” she continued.
China’s muscle-flexing makes America’s stance on Taiwan seem increasingly untenable.
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For the last 40 years, the US has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward the defence of Taiwan, keeping the option of defending the East China Sea island nation on the table without explicitly committing to do so.
However, China is increasingly stepping up its military drills around the island and dialing up its rhetoric.
What’s more, China is expanding its nuclear force and is on pace to nearly quadruple the number of warheads it has by 2035, rapidly closing its gap with the United States, the Pentagon said in a report released on Tuesday.
This could make China more assertive on the world stage and less intimidated by America’s position on Taiwan.
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China is also watching how the US handles the Russia-Ukraine war closely.
While there are key differences in geography and in the US commitment to come to Taiwan’s defence, “there are clear parallels between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan”, a Center for Strategic and International Studies report found last month.
Soon after Russian troops crossed into Ukraine last February, the US and allies began sending massive amounts of weapons across the border from partner nations.
But Taiwan would need to be fully armed in advance, CSIS found in dozens of war scenarios it ran for its report.
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Communist leaders have promised a “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and a “world-class military” by 2049.
“The risk of unintended war being triggered by uncontrollable escalation is always there,” the expert added.
Throw into the mix that China’s nuclear arsenal is rapidly catching up with that of America’s – it’s expected to grow to 1,500 by 2035, while the US sits at 3,750 active warheads – and the future looks very uncertain.
