Ukrainian town destroyed by Russia could fall to Putin – but he may not gain much from it


Russia may seize control of Avdiivka, a key eastern town in Ukraine that has been the epicentre of intense fighting in recent months.

The US National Security Council spokesman, John Kirby, expressed concerns about the town’s fate during a briefing in Washington. He warned: “Avdiivka is at risk of falling into Russian control.”

Mr Kirby attributed the potential loss to Ukraine’s dwindling artillery ammunition and the relentless waves of conscript forces sent by Russia to attack Ukrainian positions.

The US spokesman stressed the urgency of providing Ukraine with the necessary artillery shells to counter the Russian assaults, citing the failed supplemental bill in Congress as a hindrance to aid delivery.

The once-thriving town of Avdiivka, now almost completely destroyed, serves as a strategic gateway to Donetsk, the regional Ukrainian capital seized by Russian-backed fighters in 2014 and subsequently annexed by Moscow. Russian forces have made significant gains in Avdiivka, posing a serious threat to encircle the town.

The dire situation on the ground prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to pledge all possible efforts to “save as many Ukrainian lives as possible”.

Mr Zelensky’s commitment comes as Russian troops advance, reaching Ukrainian trenches in Avdiivka and overwhelming Ukrainian defences.

Losing Avdiivka may tank the morale of Ukrainian soldiers and provide Russian President Vladimir Putin with “immediate informational and political victories”, the Institute for the Study of War think tank noted.

However, the potential capture of the town, which before the war counted around 31,000 residents, would not be operationally significant, the revered think tank added.

In its latest assessment of the ongoing war, the ISW wrote: “Russian forces have expended a considerable amount of manpower and materiel on their effort to capture Avdiivka and will likely need to engage in a prolonged period of consolidation, reconstitution, and rest before attempting a further concerted offensive effort in the area.

“Russian forces would be highly unlikely to make rapid operationally significant advances from Avdiivka if they captured the settlement, and the potential Russian capture of Avdiivka at most would set conditions for further limited tactical gains.”

Russia, under the leadership of Putin, launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The ongoing conflict has highlighted Ukraine’s critical dependence on weapons supplies from the US and other Western allies, especially as it faces the formidable military force of Russia with its abundant artillery ammunition.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg weighed in on the situation, cautioning that the US’s failure to approve continued military assistance to Ukraine is already impacting the battlefield.

Mr Zelensky, in a late Thursday video address, reiterated Ukraine’s determination to equip its forces with the necessary resources.

He said: “We are doing everything we can to ensure that our warriors have enough managerial and technological capabilities to save as many Ukrainian lives as possible.”

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