The violence that exploded in the Middle East following last weekend’s multipronged attack launched by Hamas may have unexpected consequences on the war efforts in Ukraine.
Political expert Ruslan Bortnik believes the attention of the media on the events in Ukraine is “necessary” to influence public opinion and politicians in countries becoming hesitant when it comes to further supporting Kyiv and providing more military aid.
But the new violence in Israel and Gaza is set to at least partially overshadow the events in Ukraine, he said.
Moreover, allies of Tel Aviv who have so far helped Ukraine in its fight against the Moscow invasion may need to start allocating some of their resources to the Middle East, the expert added.
Mr Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, told Express.co.uk: “The further volumes of allied assistance to Ukraine will depend on how long the war between Israel and Hamas will last, and on the course of the fighting there.”
If the conflict between Hamas and Israel escalates into a regional war, possibly due to the involvement of Iran-backed Hezbollah, the impact on Ukraine will be “critical”, Mr Bortnik added.
He explained: “If the conflict escalates into a broader regional war, involving other groups such as the Lebanese group Hezbollah, and risks spilling into Iran or Syria, it will require greater attention from the United States and allies.
“In this case, the war in the Middle East will have a critical impact on the possibility of waging war in Ukraine. In the absence of a significant change on the battlefield, Ukraine may completely disappear from the spotlight of the world community.
“This will create risks and a significant reduction in the level of support for allies, especially the United States.”
Since the beginning of the war, the US alone sent Ukraine more than £37billion ($46bn) in military aid, while the UK has committed £4.6 billion in military assistance so far.
The commentator noted a new war in the Middle East may also spike global energy prices and affect not just Ukraine’s Western allies but also Kyiv itself, while filling up the coffers of Iran and Russia instead.
Mr Bortnik added: “With the outbreak of war on Israeli territory, the administration of US President Joe Biden will now obviously have less opportunity to concentrate resources on the war in Ukraine.”
Mr Biden has pledged to continue to support Ukraine’s fight, but the US Congress has not yet passed his request to send additional funding to Kyiv.
Another geopolitical expert, Kervin Aucoin, who runs the podcast This Week Explained, noted war fatigue may have a huge impact over the next few months of conflict in Ukraine.
He told Express.co.uk: “At this time both militaries are consolidating forces to ramp up a ground offensive once the ground has completely frozen over. Due to the weather in Ukraine over the next couple of months, the ground will remain difficult to manoeuvre, so we are going to see minimal losses until things ramp up again.”
Noting how the Ukrainian military has been bolstered by Western aid, he continued: “However, war fatigue and the fact that Israel is a major ally will play a role in diminished support from the West.
“As the war in Israel continues, Kyiv will find less support from a war-weary West, which will directly impact their ability to fight Russia.”
