As Russia’s war in Ukraine approaches the three-year mark, Ukraine is rapidly losing its well-trained infantry on the battlefront and any chance of defeating Russia is dwindling.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin is militarising the Russian economy, replenishing its army, and producing more and more weapons, Ukraine is falling behind.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said there may be some hope for Ukrainians, but only if they make “the right choices”.
Kofman said to The Wall Street Journal: “The material advantages in 2024 are principally on Russia’s side, but they don’t appear decisive enough that Russia will be able to achieve its political aims.
“It’s inaccurate to suggest that Russia is winning the war. However, if the right choices are not made next year on Ukraine’s approach and Western resourcing, then Ukraine’s prospects for success look dim.”
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently focused on keeping Kyiv supplied with advanced arms, ammunition, and financing as he’s visited Washington and other Western capitals.
But the real problem is at home, where Ukraine’s top military commander said that training and recruiting troops has become a serious challenge.
In a recent essay, Ukrainian military commander Valery Zaluzhny said: “The prolonged nature of the war, limited opportunities for the rotation of soldiers on the line of contact, gaps in legislation that seem to legally evade mobilisation, significantly reduce the motivation of citizens to serve with the military.”
Ukraine needs more manpower to sustain the war against Russia – a country more than three times the population of Ukraine.
Kyiv fills its ranks with volunteers, but the state also has a system that allows it to draft men of military age.
After Russia’s invasion, Ukraine imposed martial law, under which all males aged 18 to 60 were considered liable for military service and could be mobilised unless they were eligible for deferment.
The rules of military registration were updated in 2023 to include women.
Ukraine desperately needs more troops as Moscow continues to ramp up domestic production of artillery shells and looks for supplies from North Korea.
This comes as Kyiv’s long-awaited counteroffensive has failed to make any major breakthroughs on the battlefield, and Western support is wavering.
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