The impact of Donald Trump being the overwhelmingly likely candidate running for the Republicans again in this year’s US election is playing a significant role in deciding the timing of a UK general election – but in a surprising way.
Conservative Party sources have admitted to Express.co.uk that the events across the Atlantic are now playing a significant role in the calculations over whether to risk an early election in May or wait until October or even mid-November.
The big reason pushing a delay is that Tories now believe Nigel Farage will not stand for Parliament in the Autumn because he will be in the US helping President Trump win back the White House.
As it seems that only the courts can now keep the former US President from being the Republican nominee with the crucial New Hampshire Primary test on Tuesday, hopes are high that the impact of Reform UK on the Conservative vote will be much reduced with Mr Farage over in America instead.
One Conservative MP told Express.co.uk: “Farage is a big reason why it will be in the Autumn. He will want to help Trump and he will be in America. That means he will not be fighting a seat here or helping Reform.”
Last week Express.co.uk revealed that Farage is considering making another bid for Parliament in Clacton in Essex.
As a strongly Brexit seat which previously elected Douglas Carswell for UKIP but is currently represented by Remainer former actor Giles Watling, the seat is seen as a perfect target for the former Brexit Party leader turned award winning GB News host.
Speculation has been running wild about Mr Farage reentering frontline politics again after his successful spell in the Australian jungle on ITV’s I’m a Celebrity…Get Me Out of Here!
The ex-UKIP leader picked up a huge amount of support and exposure to an audience which does not normally engage in politcs.
One Conservative source said: “Giles [Watling] is really nervous about the prospect of Farage running. I think it might be an easy win for [Farage].”
The key thing for Tory strategists is how big the Reform UK (formerly Brexit Party) vote will be in the country.
With Reform running in every seat it threatens to split the vote on the right and take away support from the Tories.
Currently under Richard Tice’s leadership it is running at between 9 percent and 12 percent in the polls. But if Mr Farage returns as leader and stands for a seat it is calculated that the party could get anything between 15 percent and 20 percent potentially consigning the Conservatives to annihilation.
The impact would be felt strongest in Brexiteer areas and in the Red Wall seats taken off Labour.
One Red Wall MP told Express.co.uk: “Nigel being away in America makes a Hell of a difference. Without him campaigning in Britain we stand a much better chance of minimising the Reform vote and holding on to our seats if the polls close with Labour.”
