Conservatives face near-wipeout at the next election leaving them with just 98 seats in England and none in Wales or Scotland, a shock poll suggests. Cabinet Ministers set to be kicked out of Parliament include Home Secretary James Cleverly, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Transport Secretary Mark Harper and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt
Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith and Jonathan Gullis, recently appointed Deputy Chairman, are also set to go.
The poll by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain included 15,029 people, far more than most surveys, allowing predictions at constituency level. Tories have the support of 26 percent of voters overall compared to 45 percent for Labour.
Even Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is at a risk of losing his constituency of Richmond and Northallerton, with a projected lead of just 2.5 over Labour in the seat.
The constituency forecast suggested Sir Keir Starmer’s party could be on course for a landslide, winning 468 seats.
The Scottish National Party would pick up 41 seats, the Liberal Democrats 22 and Plaid Cymru two.
In 2019 the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid four.
In an analysis which will fuel Conservative unease about the threat from Reform UK, the survey suggested Richard Tice’s party will come second in seven seats and achieve an overall vote share of 8.5%, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%
But a model of what would happen if Reform UK did not stand suggested the Tories would win 150 seats – still a crushing defeat, but potentially giving Mr Sunak, or more likely his replacement, a better chance to rebuild.
The study, carried out by Survation for the internationalist Best for Britain campaign group, suggested several Cabinet ministers, including potential leadership contenders, could be ousted at the election as the Tories face their worst result.
