CHINA may see its influence in the Maldives dwindle if opposition parties win this weekend’s parliamentary elections.
The vote – which will determine the fate of 93 parliamentary seats – comes at a crucial time for beleaguered President Mohamed Muizzu, who is currently embroiled in a corruption scandal and has lost the support of coalition partners since coming to power just five months ago.
Though it has a population of only half a million people, the Indian Ocean archipelago is seen as crucial to China’s broader strategy to isolate India from South Asian nations.
Muizzu campaigned on an “India Out” platform, in an effort to diminish India’s influence, and his narrow win in November’s presidential elections saw the island nation undergo a seismic strategic shift as it more fully embraced its relationship with China.
Crucially, the 43-year-old former Mayor signed a raft of 18 Memoranda of Understanding with China during an unprecedented visit to Beijing – which he undertook while rejecting the usual protocol of also visiting New Delhi and for which he was rewarded with £120m of leveraged Chinese foreign aid.
Muizzu took power after defeating former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who had raised concerns about the cost of China’s construction projects in the country.
Despite already existing debts to China of £1.3bn – and a warning from the IMF that this may be unsustainable – President Muizzu pledged to accelerate the island chain’s position as the first South Asian country to join China’s largely discredited Belt and Road Initiative.
One of China’s strategies, analysts say, is to pursue closer cooperation with the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Nepal, – countries that border India- in a bid to strengthen its position amid an ongoing territorial dispute with New Delhi.
To this end, President Muizzu signed a defence pact with China last month which promises “military assistance gratis to the Republic of Maldives, fostering stronger bilateral ties.”
And his promised expulsion of all Indian troops from the islands will go ahead though, such is his weakening position that he has now agreed to allow Indian civilians to occupy their roles in a show of compromise.
Frosty diplomatic ties between New Delhi and Male have resulted in a 40 percent drop in Indian tourism, though Muizzu hopes to plug the millions in fallen revenue with Chinese visitors.
But last night opposition leaders said that President Muizzu’s time in office was “running out”.
Recent problems centre around leaked documents by the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) of the Maldives Monetary Authority and the Maldives Police Service that Financial which allegedly link President Muizzu to at least 10 “red flag” examples of corruption – including embezzlement, structured transactions, and the use of corporate entities to hide fund origins- in 2018.
Tensions are being further increased opposition leaders say, by President Muizzu’s refusal to honour a pledge to free his predecessor, former President Abdulla Yameen, who was jailed for 11 years in 2022 for money laundering charges related to receiving kickbacks from a private company.
Yameen has denied any wrongdoing, and has become the centre for opposition from his jail cell, fronting a new party called the People’s National Front (PNF).
Protests against the Maldives’ current pro-China strategy resulted in Muizzi’s reportedly ordering the arrests of Yemeen’s supporters and relatives
It is acts like these which has dented Muizzi’s relationship with coalition partners, said former technology minister Mohamad Maheesh Jamal.
“We supported him last year, but he has become an iron fist leader who has suppressed freedom of assembly and democratic rights of protest,” said Mr Jamel, now secretary general of the People’s National Front party.
“He has also reneged on a promise to release President Yameen from prison. His base of support has collapsed.”
Mr Jamal said the current money laundering charges have left President Muizzi “unfit” for leadership.
“We have publicly stated it was time for fresh elections if he fails to secure a majority after this weekend’s elections,” he said.
“The evidence of his involvement in money laundering seems overwhelming, and he is simply unfit for leadership now.
“We are uniting with other parties and, the way things look now, it is highly likely that we will achieve the two-thirds majority needed to vote to formally impeach President Muizzi. And we must impeach him”
He added; “Muizzi has failed to fix our economy – in fact, he is putting us more in debt.
“And we can all see that he has no prior experience in diplomacy or foreign relations, something which China is taking full advantage of while our country pays the price.
“Add to that his heavy-handed tactics and you see what so many have lost faith with him,”
He added: “We need to realign with India and regain our political stability. For that to happen, President Muizzi has to go.”
Regional expert Jonah Kaplan, of the Sibylline strategic risk group, said: “What the opposition parties are really looking for is to get a two-thirds majority, which would enable them to file impeachment proceedings. “And is certainly within the realms of possibility that this happens.”
“Muizzu has complete executive powers until such a time as he is impeached, if he is. But we have seen him respond to the pressure by backtracking on some of his rhetoric, saying recently that India will remain the Maldives’ closest ally. “
He added: “The reality is that the Maldives need both China and India, since they are the two biggest regional players.
