Mark Francois says ‘five families’ can’t back Rwanda bill
The day started for Rishi Sunak with an early breakfast in Downing Street with MPs from the right of the party threatening to vote against his “flawed” Rwanda Bill.
While the Prime Minister may have hoped to have charmed them with bacon sandwiches and fruit when the MPs wandered out after an hour with him at about 8.30am, they were grumbling about how “grim” the coffee was.
Things sort of went downhill from there for the Government.
Indeed, the taste of the coffee was refreshing compared to the bile in the mouths of many of his MPs
By 11am it was clear that at least 15 Tory MPs were prepared to rebel against the Bill saying it was “unamendable.”
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Tory MPs arrive for an early breakfast in Downing Street (Image: Sky News)
As one MP said: “That’s 15 who turned up to a meeting there are probably more ready to vote against.”
The attempt to use the One Nation group on the left of the party as political muscle the night before had backfired badly.
As one MP noted: “If they agree to it the Bill definitely is flawed.”
Another speculated: “It was just a put-up job there were 20 MPs at most in that One Nation meeting, most of that group are in the government as ministers bound by collective responsibility.”
Another said: “This is a One Nation government trying to trick us. A lot of trust has been lost as a result.”
Rishi Sunak has had a difficult day (Image: Getty)
It was also clear that MPs in the five groups on the right – the European Research Group (ERG), Common Sense Group (CSG), New Conservatives (NC), Northern Research Group (NRG) and Conservative Growth Group (CGG) – were becoming increasingly determined not to be strong armed into backing the Bill.
Mini meetings were taking place in different MPs’ offices across the estate while Whatsapp groups were buzzing.
One MP who had never rebelled the Government since being elected messaged Express.co.uk that he would be voting “against” for the first time.
The Chief Whip Simon Hart could be seen looking increasingly frustrated and red faced.
The old tactic of trying to buy off the Northern Irish Democratic Unionists was tried but by the afternoon they had sided with their old friends in the European Research Group (ERG) to oppose the Bill.
As Tory rebels told Express.co.uk that “we have the numbers” desperation moves came into operation.
Chief whip Simon Hart has been strongly criticised (Image: Getty)
With the Opposition parties united against only 29 Tory MPs needed to rebel or a number of them to abstain as well.
But there was one concern being expressed as the Government started offering to buy off MPs by funding projects in their constituencies.
“The problem is that we may well be framed as being unreasonable if we bring the Bill down now,” said one MP.
But as anxiety in Downing Street rose Environment Minister Graham Stuart was ordered to get a flight from Dubai to come and vote leaving the COP28 climate talks.
Then Hart ordered his whips to get nasty.
Calls started going to MPs saying “there will be consequences” if they voted against the Bill.
It caused confusion. The Prime Minister had said it was not a confidence vote but the suggestion was that rebels could be kicked out of the parliamentary party and “lose the whip”.
Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman said the Bill was not fit for purpose (Image: Getty)
Among those confused was Suella Braverman who was herself working out whether to vote against or abstain on a Bill she thinks needs to be scrapped and brought back.
“Nobody wants to lose the whip,” she is understood to have said to friends.
But she also saw little point in keeping a Bill alive which would fail to ensure deportation flights to Rwanda of illegal migrants.
She and her allies believe that the exceptional circumstances clauses will see the courts clogged with individual challenges.
But the threat of losing the whip seemed to die away quickly as senior members of the ERG quickly made it clear that they did not take the threat seriously.
Nor did they take the other threat of a February election – although some legal and constitutional advice was taken on that issue.
One source said: said: “The threat is not as real as the Prime Minister would like us to believe. He is duty bound not to drag the monarch into politics and he can only request an election.
“The King is not obliged to agree and only has to agree if nobody else can form a majority. Clearly there are alternatives who could form a majority.”
Sir John Hayes chairs the influential Common Sense Group (Image: Getty)
After a series of meetings with rebel leaders from the ERG, Common Sense Group, New Conservatives, Northern Research Group and Conservate Growth Group, Mr Hart gave up and rushed across to Downing Street to have an “emergency meeting” with the Prime Minister.
Just 15 minutes after Hart has returned to the Downing Street bunker, at 5.15pm Tory MPs on the right gathered in the Wilson Room to decide the Prime Minister’s fate.
All five groups were represented and big names were present including Suella Braverman, Lord Frost, and Robert Jenrick who resigned as Immigration Minister over the Bill.
Hart’s own tactics and apparent ineptness had been met with disdain by his colleagues.
“He is the weak link in a weak government,” said one MP of Hart.
“He is a big part of the problem,” another noted.
During the meeting one MP stated that he would vote against the Bill because he wanted to inflict a defeat on Hart.
It had not helped that Hart had apparently declared war on the right of the party in October, something which the reshuffle and ejection of Suella Braverman as Home secretary had seemed to confirm.
The meeting lasted for an hour and a half with the deliberations behind closed doors taking on even more significance than the debate on the Bill in the Commons chamber.
Sir Jake Berry chairs the Northern Research Group (Image: Getty)
Insiders said that it was polite and well conducted, chaired by ERG chairman Mark Francois.
All views were heard and there was a lot of disagreement but in the end they came to a consensus.
At stake was the Prime Minister’s authority and credibility and the ability of his government to endure beyond January.
One MP claimed that as many as 40 letters asking for a vote of confidence in Sunak had been placed with the 1922 Committee which represents Tory MPs.
The only question was who would win the game of chicken. Would the Prime Minister pull the Bill as rebels demanded to avoid potential humiliation or would they step back from wrecking it?
At 6.45pm just a quarter of an hour before the first vote on the Bill Francois emerged with Braverman, and chairs of the other groups including Sir Jake Berr, Sir John Hayes and Miriam Cates.
A parade to the waiting TV camera in Portcullis House with a huddle of journalists around it saw them pronounce on the Bill…and, in effect, the fate of the Prime Minister.
It was a stay of execution.
“We cannot support the Bill,” said Francois before adding that amendments would placed at later stages and the five groups “collectively reserved the right” to bring down the Bill at the third and final reading.
It seems that a last minute offer to accept amendments of the Bill had been heard and the Conservative MPs on the right thought it “reasonable” to give Sunak a chance.
Older heads told some of the yonger “hotheads” to “keep their powder dry”.
As one noted: “It was emphasised that if we go for it we all need to go for it.”
The Bill scraped through on the Second Reading by 313 to 269.
Sources from the meeting said: “We had the numbers to wreck the Bill. They do not know how close they came to defeat tonight.”
It means Sunak can survive through Christmas and sweat it out when he brings the Bill back in January. But he now knows that his future is in the hands of the right of his party despite all his attempts to marginalise and crush them.
