Rishi Sunak was today given a glimmer of hope by a leading pollster in pulling off a miraculous general election recovery. Tory peer Lord Hayward said the Conservatives still have a “narrow pathway” to victory when Britons next take to the polls, despite Labour winning the West Lancashire by-election with a 10 percent swing.
The polling expert highlighted a number of reasons why the by-election blow may not spell disaster for the Tories.
Lord Hayward told the Express: “One, the party will be relieved in the middle of the nurses and ambulance strikes that the result wasn’t worse.
“Secondly, that it was no worse than recent by-elections, if anything marginally better.
“The swing of 10 percent is the same as it was in Stretford and Urmston a few weeks ago, but less than it was in Chester which of course is only just down the road two months ago.
“And the result is better than the opinion polls would currently show.
“If you take that swing, the Labour lead would be somewhere just short of 15 percent as against the 20, 22 percent they’re currently showing.
“So then you come to the observation that an election is not for a year and a half anyway.
“It would always be dangerous because there are always anti-Government swings in virtually every Parliament against the sitting Government.”
Lord Hayward added: “There is a narrow pathway for the Conservatives to victory at the next election.
“But as each month passes, particularly with industrial relations problems, that pathway diminishes.
“It is the strikes which has stopped Rishi Sunak getting his general message across.”
Labour’s Ashley Dalton secured a majority of 8,326 over Conservative candidate Mike Prendergast in yesterday’s by-election on a turnout of less than a third.
There was an expectation of an easy Labour hold in the constituency.
It was the first time the Tory vote has dipped below 30 percent since the 1997 general election, which Tony Blair won by a landslide.
In her victory speech, Ms Dalton told the Conservatives to “move out of the way”, adding: “Let Labour take over and it’s time for a general election.”
The by-election result comes as the Tories have been trailing behind Labour in the polls.
The latest tracker poll by Techne for the Express shows Sir Keir Starmer’s party has a 21-point lead over the Conservatives.
According to the survey of 1,624 British voters carried out on Wednesday and Thursday, 47 percent back Labour, while 26 percent support Mr Sunak’s party.
