Voters are heading to the polls in a key Westminster by-election that could decide the long-term fate of the SNP.
Polls opened in the constituency of Rutherglen and Hamilton West this morning, the seat formerly represented by Margaret Ferrier before she was booted out by voters following her lengthy Commons suspension for breaking Covid rules.
The seat is experiencing Scotland’s first-ever recall by-election since the process was created, whereby 10 percent of voters can trigger a new vote for their MP if they are handed a Parliamentary suspension of more than 10 days.
The by-election comes at a crucial time for the SNP, with polls for Scottish voting intentions consistently showing a sizeable fall in the party’s popularity since the departure – and subsequent arrest – of Nicola Sturgeon.
The party’s new leader, Humza Yousaf, will come under intense pressure if Labour wins the seat, which national poll swings suggest they might.
The SNP’s percentage point lead over Labour has fallen from the mid-20s in May 2022, to single figures since Mr Yousaf won the party’s leadership race.
Two polls since his election have also shown the SNP tying with Labour on 34 percent and 35 percent respectively.
Britain’s leading pollster, Sir John Curtice, has said the seat is a “must-win” for Keir Starmer and his Scottish leader Anas Sarwar.
Sir John told the National newspaper: “I’d be inclined to say it would be a much bigger milestone if they fail to win.
“This is a relatively marginal SNP-held seat – it was won by Labour in 2017.
“Even if the by-election had been held six months ago it should have been a close contest, as by that stage even though support for the SNP was not particularly down, Labour’s vote was around 10 points up and that’s all Labour need to do in order to be able to pick the seat up.”
He added: “What we are looking for in this by-election, assuming Labour win, is how well they win”.
“They ought to win relatively comfortably… being as far ahead in terms of the share of the vote as the SNP were in 2019. That would be a 10 percent swing with current national polls on average, although there is some variation pointing to about 11 points.”
Anas Sarwar has said a win could have a “seismic” impact for his party both in Scotland and across the country.
The SNP candidate, Katie Loudon, has turned up the heat during the by-election, accusing Labour of “colluding” with Tory policies like the two-child welfare cap.
She’s insisted she feels confident about the vote, saying she hopes voters send a message to both Tories and Labour in Westminster that: “we reject your Brexit, we reject your austerity, we reject that you ignore this constituency and Scotland… and send a message to Keir Starmer’s Labour party that we’re not going to put up with your lurch to the right”.
