SNP facing real prospect of 'wipeout' at next general election after devastating new poll


The SNP could be facing “wipeout territory” at the next general election, according to a politics expert.

New polling found that with undecided voters removed, Labour lead the SNP by 38 percent to 32 percent north of the border.

Professor Robert Ford said the majority of the SNP’s seats could be at risk if the polling is replicated at the general election.

Writing on X, formerly known as Twitter, he said: “Just one poll but this starts getting us into SNP wipeout territory if sustained.

“This would be roughly a 16-point SNP to Labour swing.

“Any SNP MP with a majority over Labour under 35-40 percent would be vulnerable. Which is a lot of seats.

“There are only seven SNP seats where SNP majority over Labour is more than 40 points, and only one where it is over 45.

“And some of these could fall to second placed Conservatives or Liberal Democrats if SNP vote plunges.

“Practically all seats in Scotland could be in play if Labour polls like this.”

The Scottish Opinion Monitor conducted by the Scottish Election Study surveyed 1,244 voters north of the border in late October.

The publication suggests the connection between support for Scottish independence and the SNP is weakening.

Some 53 percent of those who indicated they would back a second referendum also supported the SNP in a huge decline from previous figures of around 80 percent.

The poll found nearly 20 percent of those who voted for Scottish independence in the 2014 referendum intend to back Labour in the general election expected next year.

And just 55 percent of respondents who voted SNP at the 2019 general election said they would support the party in the next ballot.

Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, 48 percent said they would do so again, while 18 percent are likely to vote Labour – with Sir Keir Starmer’s party also likely to attract 21 percent of SNP voters and 38 percent from the Liberal Democrats.

But the SNP holds a slight edge over Labour in voting intentions for Holyrood’s constituency ballot in 2026, with 35 percent compared to 32 percent when undecided voters are removed.

It comes as the SNP has faced a series of challenges following Nicola Sturgeon’s departure including a police probe into its finances.

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