After national service, my father became a greengrocer, then wholesaler and built a successful business in Kent. He had a saying applying to produce that was getting past its best: “The first loss is the best loss.”
It is not as inscrutable as it sounds and means hanging on to something is not going to improve it – best to get something in the till today rather than in the bin tomorrow.
Gamblers rarely heed advice as they chase losses and so another phrase “we’ve spent this much we can’t stop now” has been the driving force behind the HS2 project, conceived under Gordon Brown’s tenure as PM.
What started in 2010 as a “mere” £33billion estimate for HS2 rapidly ballooned, hitting £56billion in 2015 and earning criticism from Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee.
It climbed further to £98billion before the eastern leg of the northern ‘Y’ was scrapped in 2020. And more recently, the final five-mile connection to Euston from Old Oak Common was paused in April as costs doubled to £4.8billion – a cool thousand million pounds a mile. Isambard Brunel would cry. Most damaging is the ragged state of the benefit assessment.
Initial estimates put it at £2.40 of economic return per taxpayer pound spent but is now at just 90p. It means the cost to the taxpayer will never return a surplus leaving the project as a mere nice-to-have trinket.
Work patterns have changed radically since 2009 with online meetings and hybrid working. There is a sense of permanency that public transport will never return to pre-Covid levels. The conspiracy against the project is practically complete.
The latest straw in the wind is the potential cancellation of the left fork of the ‘Y’ from Birmingham to Manchester as costs escalate on the stretch between Birmingham and west London by a further £8billion.
If this first phase ever does complete, I think I’ll take the existing direct Euston to New Street option in any event – it’ll be quicker and cheaper.
This article is becoming full of old adages, and I’ll use another which we all use as the ultimate cleanser: “We are where we are.” All very easy to be wise after the event but HS2 has sucked investment from every other infrastructure plan.
Improved Trans-Pennine connectivity to link up northern cities into an economic zone should have been phase one, not more London-centric thinking.
Other smaller railway plans could have opened up new town development instead of our piecemeal approach to planning of tacking on to existing towns to the detriment of all. The final adage: “We’ll learn lessons.” I hope we do. Perhaps greengrocers should be in charge.
