Russia is failing to make the most of its military advantage in the Black Sea – and the apparent sacking of naval commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov is indicative of increasing Kremlin frustration, a UK-based expert has suggested.
Bryden Spurling, senior defence research leader at RAND Europe, believes Russia’s campaign has been characterised by “overconfidence” – with Vladimir Putin’s armed forces unprepared for the dogged resistance they have faced ever since the invasion of February 24, 2022.
Mr Spurling was commenting on reports by several Russian bloggers that Sokolov had been stripped of his role as Black Sea Fleet chief following the reported sinking of Russian warship Caesar Kunikov on Wednesday by Ukrainian unmanned drones.
Referring to claims which surfaced last year about Sokolov being killed in a missile strike, Mr Spurling told Express.co.uk: “If true – and keep in mind there is still debate about whether Admiral Sokolov is even still alive – his replacement most likely reflects Kremlin frustration with Ukraine’s continued successes in the Black Sea.
“When Russia invaded Ukraine, the Black Sea Fleet significantly outmatched what Ukraine was able to deploy in the same theatre.
“Keep in mind the Fleet includes not just ships and submarines but ground forces, fighter and strike aircraft, and air defence systems as well. It’s a significant grouping of military capability. And yet, as has been the case elsewhere in the war, the Russians were overconfident and strangely unable to make the most of their capability advantage.”
When Russia first invaded, their objective had been to seize all of the Black Sea coastline up to and including Odessa, something which may still be a long-term goal, Mr Spurling pointed out.
However, he continued: “When it became clear that Ukrainian defences were much stiffer than anticipated, the Russians instead settled on trying to deny the Black Sea to Ukrainian trade, and thereby weaken it economically.
“Which they were able to do for a time, but then Ukraine started hitting Russian ships with long-range precision missiles and uncrewed surface vessels, and the Russians have had to pull their naval forces further and further away.”
The Ukrainians had also been “quite successful” at striking bases, infrastructure and air defence systems in Crimea, Mr Spurling explained.
He added: “So in an unexpected turnaround, the Ukrainians are doing a reasonable job denying the Black Sea to the Russians.
“Even now, we continue to see successful strikes against Russian ships by uncrewed surface vessels.
“The seeming inability of Russian forces to adapt to those tactics might have something to do with the rumour that Admiral Sokolov may have gone the same way as his predecessor Admiral Osipov, who was thought to have been sacked after the sinking of flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser Moskva.“
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has refused to comment on the claim during a conference call with reporters Wednesday. He said questions should be addressed to the Russian military.
Ukraine’s military said Wednesday it used naval drones to sink the vessel
The amphibious ship sank near Alupka, a city on the southern edge of the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014, Ukraine’s General Staff said. It said the ship can carry 87 crew members.
Ukraine has moved onto the defensive in the war, hindered by low ammunition supplies and a shortage of personnel, but has kept up its strikes behind the largely static 1,500-kilometre (930-mile) front line.
It is the second time in two weeks that Ukrainian forces have said they sank a Russian vessel in the Black Sea. Last week, they published a video that they said showed naval drones assaulting the Russian missile-armed corvette Ivanovets.
