Rishi Sunak is facing being the first ever sitting Prime Minister in the history of British democratic politics to face losing his seat in a general election.
Analysis of all last week’s polls following his attempt to reset his government with a major reshuffle reveals that if they were the result of a general election he would lose his Richmond constituency in North Yorkshire.
The four polls gave Labour a lead of between 24 and 30 points, while Tory support ranged from 19 percent to 22 percent.
It was a severe blow for a Prime Minister who had hoped to regain the political initiative by sacking Home Secretary Suella Braverman and restructuring his top team.
But voters have reacted badly to the civil war which erupted as a result of the reshuffle and the Supreme Court’s decision to block the Rwanda deportations leaving his illegal migrant strategy in chaos.
One former cabinet minister told Express.co.uk: “I’ve spent the day with an election agent who has said it’s looking bleak.
“There’s very little that will change the party’s fortunes. I spoke at a solid Tory association last night and they are not happy with the way MPs are behaving – that also includes Suella Braverman’s hand grenades this week.”
The situation is being compared to the general election in 1906 when the Conservatives had their worst ever defeat winning just 156 seats.
In that election Tory leader Arhur Balfour lost his Manchester East seat in what was the only time when a Leader of the Opposition had been voted out in a general election.
Balfour, more famous for the agreement which would create the State of Israel, had been Prime Minister a month before the general election was called and stepped down to allow the Liberal’s Henry Campbell Bannerman to enter Downing Street.
The comparisons between the Tories in 1906 and now have been pointed out by some backbenchers.
Back then the party was deeply split over free trade and protectionism and was suffering from anger over
the effects of the Boer War as well as an economic downturn.
Now the party remains split over Brexit related issues and is suffering from the cost of living crisis and anger over the Covid pandemic.
The best case scenario poll for the Tories last week was the Techne UK survey for Express.co.uk which gave Labour under Sir Keir Starmer a 24 point lead and Sunak’s party 22 percent of the vote.
According to Electoral Calculus even that scenario would see Sunak lose his Richmond seat with the party left with just 63 seats.
Such an outcome still seems unlikely and would be an extraordinary reversal of fortunes.
In the 2019 election Sunak won 63.6 percent of the votes in Richmond and had a majority over the Labour candidate of 27,210.
But in what could become a wipeout scenario he would be one of a large number of high profile casualties.
Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “There is a cold coherence in this data: while energy bills continue to keep family budgets under pressure and the cost of living bites even more deeply, the reshuffle seems a move far from the real needs of the people, an aesthetic response to a structural problem.
“In this scenario, the Labour Party finds itself in a potentially stronger position, gathering support almost by inertia.
“However, this is not a victory until it translates into effective policies and concrete answers to the needs resonating in citizens’ live.”
