Rishi Sunak has been warned that failing to deliver his Rwanda plan could prove devastating for his premiership.
The policy, which has found the PM threatened with rebellion from the so-called “Five Families” Conservative pressure groups, seeks to ship illegal migrants to the southeast African country. While it successfully passed its second reading in the Commons on Tuesday, there remains a long journey ahead for the Rwanda plan.
It will still need to pass further readings in the Commons in January before hitting the House of Lords. Speaking to the Times, a source claims a “bloodbath” awaits the PM if he is unable to see it through.
A source close to Conservatives rebelling against the policy told the outlet: “He can’t go into that election arguing he has a coherent strategy on migration when a large part of his party say he doesn’t. If the bill fails it will be a bloodbath.”
The government’s lawyers estimate it has a 50 percent chance of succeeding, it was revealed earlier this month.
It follows a presentation from Isaac Levido, an Austrian political strategist understood to be working with Mr Sunak for the next general election, in which he said the Rwanda plan dealt with an important issue for voters. However, he warned that continued infighting in the Tories could cost them the election.
The Rwanda bill appears to have split the Conservative Party, with right-wing factions fearing that the most recent draft would still allow the bill to be shot down by legal challenges to deportation under the European Convention on Human Rights. Immigration minister Robert Jenrick resigned earlier this month following a row with the PM over his newest draft of the Bill.
Meanwhile, the moderate One Nation caucus of Conservative MPs are less supportive of anything that would contravene international law, placing the PM in a difficult position to maintain a majority support of his party.
Reform UK leader Richard Tice this week issued a withering assessment of Mr Sunak’s plan to handle the huge migration figures. Slamming the Conservative Party’s record on migration, he said: “Post-Brexit they changed the rules, not to tighten and reduce immigration but to open the borders and allow a wholly predictable surge.”
In an op-ed for the Telegraph, he said the measures put in in place by the PM are “hopelessly inadequate for the task”, adding that “Rwanda is just a side show”.
Responding to the criticism, a spokersperson for the Home Office told Express.co.uk the Government remains on track to Mr Sunak’s commitment to clear the backlog by the end of the year.
They added: “We have announced a plan to decisively cut net migration and create a system that works for the British people. Together, these measures will see the biggest ever reduction in net migration, with around 300,000 fewer people arriving in the UK compared to last year.
“We are also committed to processing asylum claims without unnecessary delay.”
The UK Supreme Court ruled in November of this year that the initial version of the Rwanda plan was unlawful due to the risk that asylum seekers sent to Rwanda could be returned to their home countries, where they could face harm – under a legal term named “refoulement”.
