Reform UK’s burgeoning support would cost the Tories 35 seats if there was a General Election tomorrow, according to the latest poll data.
Richard Tice’s insurgent party is currently riding high according to pollsters, garnering support in areas the Conservatives won in 2019.
The Government’s failure to handle the migrant crisis and stem the flow of boats crossing the Channel has opened up political space for Reform to exploit.
If next year’s vote was to follow the pattern of the most recent polling data, Sir Keir Starmer would take the keys to Downing Street and the Conservatives would suffer electoral oblivion.
However, Reform UK, formerly the Brexit Party, has doubled the number of points in the polls that it had last year – 10 points to five. That puts the eurosceptic party ahead of the Liberal Democrats who, according to the most data, are polling on around nine percent.
The electoral performance of Mr Tice’s party may be pivotal in determining whether or not Labour win a majority or there’s a hung parliament; the net zero-bashing Brexiteers may be Sir Keir’s kingmakers.
According to data from More in Common, if the Conservatives didn’t have to contend with Reform’s pressure from the right, they would be on for 265 seats which would likely be enough to stop a Labour majority.
However, as it stands, with Mr Tice plotting to stand a candidate in every constituency, the Tories are set to win only 230 seats, which would pave the way for a Labour majority.
Add into the equation the return of Nigel Farage, and things may be set to go from bad to worse for the Prime Minister.
When he returns from his stint on I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here! Mr Farage may well re-emerge from the political wilderness and supercharge Reform’s election campaign.
If he was to do so, it may be terminal for Mr Sunak’s hopes of thwarting Labour’s bid to win a majority.
More in Common held a focus group in Walsall in the West Midlands last month and participants heaped praise on Mr Farage for “speaking sense” and “saying what we all think” on immigration.
Red wall voters have previously referred to the Reform UK chairman as a “conviction politician” and if he is able to rally more support for the party, the consequences for Mr Sunak may become even more critical than they already are.
