Rishi Sunak is eyeing up a November general election after ruling out a snap poll in just over six weeks time.
The Prime Minister is understood to want to give himself “the best possible chance” to defeat Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party at the ballot box.
Mr Sunak will seek to boost the Tory election war chest by holding a party conference in October before going into battle.
He hopes the Birmingham jamboree will act as a launchpad for the Conservatives as they seek to win a fifth consecutive term in government.
Insiders believe that an improving economy, low inflation and falling interest rates will persuade the public that the Prime Minister’s plan is working.
Sending migrants to Rwanda before an election is held will also send a strong message to voters, they say.
One Whitehall source said: “If you want to win an election you need as many things in your favour to give you the best possible chance of victory.
“What Rishi Sunak has in his potential armoury is an improving economy. Inflation is continuing to come down and people are feeling the burden easing.
“It will be down to the Bank of England’s target in the next couple of months. That will be the point at which interest rates start to be pegged back, easing mortgage payments for millions of people.
“Rwanda will also be a totemic moment for the Prime Minister – he can say to the public that he delivered on his promise.”
On Thursday Mr Sunak ruled out holding a general election on May 2 following mounting speculation he could “go early”.
The Prime Minister stated that a poll would not be held on the same day as planned local elections.
A general election must be held by January 2025, but the Prime Minister can decide to call one before then.
The Tories currently Labour by around 20 points in the polls.
Mr Sunak has previously said that his “working assumption” is that the election will be in the second half of this year.
A senior Tory told the Daily Express: “It has to be November now at the earliest. We need the money the party conference will generate for the campaign, particularly after the donor row.”
No 10 is also concerned about the impact Nigel Farage could have on the campaign trail.
The hugely popular GB News presenter could prove to be a “nuisance” for the Tories, particularly with Reform UK – the party he is closely linked with – expected to take votes from the Conservatives in many constituencies.
A November election would have the added benefit of Mr Farage being preoccupied with trying to get Donald Trump back into the White House.
In an interview last month the Brexiteer said he wants to focus on the US presidential vote instead of standing as a Reform UK candidate.
“We’ve got the American elections, I might have a bit of a role to play there,” he told Bloomberg.
A source said: “Having Farage thousands of miles away in America will be handy for the Tories because he can’t be a nuisance for them during an election campaign here.”
It comes after it was reported that Cabinet ministers had discussed whether the Conservatives might be forced to replace Mr Sunak before the next general election.
Private discussions have been held in recent days about the future of the Prime Minister, Bloomberg reported, citing “sources familiar with the matter”.
Ministers reportedly considered whether a caretaker leader would help to stem the feared surge in support for Labour.
Those involved in the talks are said to still be supportive of Mr Sunak and do not want a change in leadership now, with no clear rival having emerged who could replace him.
But two senior Cabinet ministers reportedly said that if a candidate did emerge who could take over without a full leadership contest having to be held, Mr Sunak would likely be removed.
The discussions reported by Bloomberg are said to have been prompted by broader concerns about Mr Sunak’s political judgement and against a backdrop of waning support.
Dame Andrea Jenkyns, a Tory MP and a vocal critic of the Prime Minister, told the BBC’s Today podcast this week: “I personally want a new leader before the election.”
