Reform UK has narrowed the gap with the Conservatives in a bombshell new poll, that saw the Tories sink to new lows in the latest voting intention poll.
The latest YouGov/Times poll shows the Tories on 20 percent, a four percentage point drop from the last poll on February 14-15.
Up two percentage points, Reform UK is on 13 percent, with Labour at 46 percent (up two percentage points), the Liberal Democrats on nine percent of the vote (no change) and the Greens seven percent (down one percentage point).
The latest poll, carried out over Tuesday and Wednesday (February 20-21), comes after Reform beat their last by-election record by a mile with 13 percent in Wellingborough and 10.4 percent in Kingswood.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under intense pressure as he has failed to close the opinion poll gap with Reform gaining and the gap widening with Labour.
Recent polls have predicted doom for Mr Sunak, suggesting the Tories are on course for a 1997-style wipeout in the election, which is expected later this year and due by January 2025.
The results of further polling published on Thursday (February 22) by WPI show the so-called cross-over age – that at which voters are more likely to back the Conservatives over Labour – is now 66. It represents a significant hike on 2019’s election, when the age was just 39.
The findings, which are based on a poll of more than 4,000 UK adults, suggest voters are no longer more likely to vote Conservative the older they get.
The same poll finds just nine percent of 18-24-year-olds plan to vote Conservative, increasing to 12 percent of 25-49-year-olds and 22 percent of 50-64-year-olds.
Mr Sunak faces the prospect of another bruising by-election test after an independent panel this week upheld a finding that former Conservative MP Scott Benton should be suspended from the Commons for 35 days.
Mr Benton, who was elected as a Conservative but now sits as an independent, was found to have breached Commons rules after he was caught by the Times offering to lobby ministers and table parliamentary questions on behalf of gambling investors.
He appealed against both the finding and the suspension, but in a report published on Tuesday (February 20) an independent panel upheld the Standards Committee’s original decision, saying there had been “no procedural flaw” in the process.
A by-election in Blackpool South would be the fourth such vote held this year, while defeat would be the 11th time the Government has lost a seat in a by-election since the start of the current Parliament in 2019.
The Government will now move the proposal to suspend Mr Benton, which is likely to pass the Commons without difficulty, triggering the six-week long recall petition process.
If 10 percent of Mr Benton’s constituents sign the petition, he will be recalled and a by-election will take place, meaning the poll is unlikely to occur until the end of April or the beginning of May.
