The short-lived insurgence by Wagner Group troops on Saturday may have a long-term impact on the Russian troops.
While interviewed by the European Resilience Initiative Center, US Lieutenant General Ben Hodges noted both the military chiefs in Moscow and the soldiers fighting in Ukraine are likely to have been left reeling by the events of Saturday.
When it comes to the troops, the military believes the enthusiasm of Russian soldiers in the trenches may be weaning as a result of the attempted coup which almost sparked a civil war in their homeland.
He said: “On the Russian side there has got to be – in addition to the chaos in the headquarters as people are going to try to figure out who is loyal, who is not, what’s going on – soldiers in trenches are going to wandering what’s happening above them and behind them.
“A soldier does not want to be killed or mutilated for a losing effort.
“If you begin to think the end is close, you don’t want to be killed at the end, especially if you are losing, so I think their enthusiasm is also going to be less, perhaps, as a result of all of this.”
Lt. Gen. Hodges, a retired US Army officer who served as commanding general at the US Army Europe and currently is a NATO senior mentor for logistics, also noted how losing the support of thousands of Wagner troops could have an impact on Russia’s gains in the Ukraine conflict.
Yevgeny Prigozhin is believed to have sent some 25,000 soldiers to fight in Ukraine over the past year.
Losing these troops, possibly forever, as a result of the attempted coup could thwart the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the military expert said.
Considering official numbers provided by Russia regarding its troops, the Lt. Gen. argued 25,000 soldiers would amount to three divisions.
He said: “That is a lot of troops with a [high] level of training and experience and, as we saw from all the videos, a lot of heavy equipment that is out of the fight, not available for at least a period of time.”
The expert went on to say he doesn’t believe many of the Wagner Group mercenaries will want to be integrated within the Russian Army.
Vladimir Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said on Sunday that Wagner mercenaries who wish to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defence can still do so.
The criminal case against Prigozhin and his troops, he added, would be closed after the Wagner chief ordered his soldiers to stand down and turn back as they were marching towards Moscow on Saturday.
The U-turn was the result of a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which saw Prigozhin agreeing to an exile in Minsk.
Prigozhin was last seen on Saturday evening after he left with his troops the Russian city of Rostov, while Putin hasn’t made a public appearance since his speech delivered on Saturday morning when he branded the Wagner insurgence a “stab in the back”.
