“The necessary condition for the end of this war is of course the change of the political regime and in particular the departure of Mr Putin.”
Despite sanctions, Russia’s economy grew by 3.6 percent in 2023, according to data from Russia’s federal statistics service. A 2023 poll also found that 56 percent of Russians believe the economy is performing well.
But Professor Sonnenfeld warned these statistics are “beyond misleading”, adding: “There’s no confidence in the objectivity or the security of Russian polling. It’s fully propaganda.”
Other experts point out that oil has played a major role in helping Russia’s economy stay afloat.
Christopher Weafer, CEO of Eurasia-based advisory firm Macro-Advisory, told Euronews that oil has helped Russia fund the crucial parts of its economy.
He said: “At the current price – just over $80 for Brent – the budget earns enough money from oil taxes to fund both the military industrial complex, social spending and other budget items with a deficit of less than 1% of GDP.
“It is comfortably affordable from accumulated financial reserves. This oil revenue is critical as the ‘swing factor’.”
This may be why Ukraine has launched a number of drone attacks on Russia’s oil facilities in recent weeks.
