Russia’s decision not to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative will likely have long-lasting ramifications – and may end up backfiring on him, according to the MoD.
In its latest intelligence assessment, the British Ministry of Defence said the end of the deal, which has granted the safe passage of ships exporting grain from Ukraine despite the ongoing war, allows the Russian Black Sea Fleet to disrupt any trade attempts.
The update noted the Russian MoD has ramped up its threats and has stated its intention to deter all merchant shipping from Ukrainian ports.
On Wednesday Moscow’s military leadership said it would assume all vessels approaching Ukraine were carrying weapons – and therefore see them as possible enemies.
However, the UK Defence Intelligence’s update cautioned, the death of the grain deal also exposes Moscow’s fleet to dangers it wasn’t facing before.
The assessment read: “The Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) will likely now take a more active role in disrupting any trade which continues.
“However, BSF blockade operations will be at risk from Ukrainian uncrewed surface vehicles and coastal defence cruise missiles.”
The MoD believes it likely Russia had made the decision to kill the deal days before the deadline, July 17.
It said: “Russia likely made the decision to leave some time ago because it decided that the deal was no longer serving its interests.
“Russia has masked this with disinformation, claiming its withdrawal is instead due to concerns that civilian ships are at risk from Ukrainian mines and that Ukraine was making military use of the grain corridor without providing evidence for these claims.”
The grain deal between Ukraine and Russia had been brokered in 2022 by the United Nations and Turkey.
The agreement facilitated the safe passage through the Black Sea of more than 30 million tonnes of grain alone since August last year.
Only a few days after the deal came to a close, Ukrainian officials accused Russia of destroying 60,000 tonnes of grain and damaged storage infrastructure in Odesa.
Kyiv’s Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi said a “considerable amount” of export infrastructure was out of operation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday the West was using the grain deal as “political blackmail” and would consider rejoining if “all principles under which Russia agreed to participate in the deal are fully taken into account and fulfilled”.
Over the past months, Russia had lamented its country’s fertiliser and grain exports were being penalised.
