As the war in Ukraine continues to grind on, Vladimir Putin may be losing as many soldiers as the number of troops Russia is currently able to generate.
An analysis of reports about losses and recruitment within the Russian force carried out by US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested Moscow is experiencing high casualties along the entire frontline in Ukraine.
While the Kremlin hasn’t called for a mass mobilisation this year, Moscow’s “crypto-mobilisation efforts” are feeding around 20,000 troops – according to Ukraine – or some 40,000 personnel into the Russian military, according to Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev.
This type of mobilisation, first adopted by late warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin to beef up his Wagner Group mercenary troops fighting in Bakhmut, sees Russia recruiting thousands of prisoners who are offered amnesty in turn for their service on the frontline.
While noting it is difficult to determine with certainty the number of casualties as neither Ukraine nor Russia share them, the Russian recruitment figures could be on par with the losses Moscow is experiencing.
In an analysis of the ongoing war, the think tank wrote: “Ukrainian figures for Russian casualties along the front suggest that Russian monthly casualties could exceed the 20,000 monthly recruitment figure and may be even close to Medvedev’s much higher figure.
“Russian operations in Ukraine recently prompted the Russian military command to rush newly created and understrength formations to Ukraine to reinforce sectors of the front, impeding longer-term efforts to form operational and strategic reserves and restructure the Russian ground forces.”
Despite reporting huge swathes of new recruits, Russia has only been able to sustain its “current manning level” in Ukraine, the ISW wrote.
Given the fighting there is not as intense as in Avdiivka, which Moscow has been trying to encircle since October 10, the ISW suggested the “casualty rate in the Avdiivka area may be even higher”.
Over the past two months, Russian troops have been deployed in Avdiivka to achieve a rare victory on the frontline and solidify their positions in the Donetsk region.
After experiencing heavy equipment losses at the beginning of the assault on Avdiidka, Russians are now sparing equipment by conducting mass infantry-led attacks – despite these resulting in higher casualties.
