Russia has been warned its Black Sea fleet would face humiliation should it face NATO members in a maritime war.
James Stavridis, who led NATO forces in Europe between 2009 and 2013, said the aggressive actions by Russia against civilian ships in the international waters of the Black Sea and the illegal blockade it is attempting against Kyiv can create “a real risk” of escalating to a maritime war between Moscow and the Western military alliance.
However, he added that should NATO members bordering the Black Sea be pushed to intervene, “the Russian Black Sea Fleet would be militarily overmatched”.
Tensions have been high in the Black Sea since Vladimir Putin ended the grain deal in July.
Last week, Ukraine created a humanitarian corridor to allow the crossing of civilian ships that had been stuck in its ports for weeks.
But Moscow hasn’t committed to respecting it, and last Sunday it fired a warning shot against the Palau-flagged Şükrü Okan ship before boarding it off the coast of Turkey – a tactic the former US admiral blasted as “tantamount to piracy”.
On Wednesday, the Hong Kong-flagged Joseph Schulte managed to safely leave Odesa, despite fears Russia may target the merchant ship.
Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said this was the first boat to cross the Black Sea since Kyiv enforced the humanitarian corridor.
Speaking about the possibility NATO and Russia may plunge into a war at sea, Mr Stavridis told Politico: “Russia’s actions in the international waters of the Black Sea create a real risk of escalating this to a war at sea between NATO and the Russian Federation.
“[NATO] is not going to provide all the weapons and money for Ukraine, only to watch Russia strangle their economy with an illegal blockade.”
Since Moscow unilaterally withdrew from the grain deal, Russia has made Ukrainian grain depots and ports on the Black Sea and the Danube River some of its preferred targets.
Russia appears to be aiming to cripple Kyiv’s main source of income, its major grain and seedoil exports, and is believed to have so far destroyed some 60,000 tonnes of food.
Days after the end of the deal, the Russian Ministry of Defence warned it would consider all “vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo”.
Russia is treading a dangerous path not just with its action in the Black Sea but also with its air strikes on the river ports of Reni and Izmail – which are located just a few hundred metres from the border with Romania, a NATO member.
