Manchester City have been predicted to win the 2023/24 Premier League title, despite tasting defeat for the second consecutive weekend on Sunday. Pep Guardiola’s side were beaten 1-0 by Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium in what many assumed would have been a six-pointer between the two title contenders – but Liverpool are actually said to be more likely to finish second than the Gunners.
City made a strong start to the season but have lost their rhythm over the past few weeks, with the absence of Rodri proving costly in defeats at the hands of Wolves and Arsenal. However, Opta reports that there is still an 80.1 per cent chance that they retain the title at the end of the season.
Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool are viewed as the most likely side to push them all the way, and they have been given a 42 per cent chance of coming second, with Arsenal 30.9 per cent likely to slip into third spot despite their victory over the weekend, courtesy of Gabriel Martinelli’s late winner.
Several sides have then been ranked as having a strong chance of completing the top four, though Tottenham are viewed as the most likely (24.4 per cent) to secure Champions League football to crown Ange Postecoglou’s first season in the Premier League appropriately. Newcastle will therefore drop out of the placings and have been given a 20.8 per cent chance of finishing 5th, with Aston Villa (6th, 18.2 per cent) and Brighton (7th, 17.6 per cent) set to complete the traditional European placings.
After a strong start to the campaign, Opta records that West Ham have a 17.9 per cent chance of finishing 8th in the table – remarkably above Manchester United. Erik ten Hag’s side are the likeliest team in the league to finish 9th (17.7 per cent) after their shaky start to the season that has already seen tempers boil over behind the scenes, injury woes stack up and new signings seriously questioned.
The latter two aforementioned issues are also hampering Mauricio Pochettino’s return to England with Chelsea, and the Argentine is likely (17.4 per cent) to have to settle for a 10th-placed finish at Stamford Bridge this season. Crystal Palace (11th, 17.5 per cent), Brentford (12th, 17 per cent), Fulham (13th, 17 per cent) and Nottingham Forest (14th, 18.7 per cent) are all expected to steer clear of the relegation battle this season, despite varying starts to the campaign.
Wolves looked in trouble early in the season but supporters will be pleased to see that they won’t be dragged into the drop zone this season, with a 18.7 per cent chance that they will finish 15th. Everton (16th, 22.5 per cent) and newly-promoted Burnley (17th, 20.5 per cent) are also likely to survive to tell the tale this season, with Vincent Kompany expected to spark his team into life following their winless start to the campaign.
Despite their summer spending spree, Bournemouth have been given a 21.5 per cent likelihood of finishing 18th in the table, with Luton Town expected to drop back into the Championship with a 19th-place finish. Sheffield United have been given a whopping 43.3 per cent chance of finishing rock-bottom of the table upon their return, with reports already circulating that Paul Heckingbottom could be the first manager to be sacked this season.
