When the famous US pollster declared that every Tory MP with a majority of less than 8,000 should be looking for a new job it rather seemed to confirm the doom-laden view that the Conservatives do not stand a chance in the next general election.
Yet amazing as it seems, Luntz’s observation should give Rishi Sunak a surge of hope as he prepares for a potentially difficult week with a party conference where his opponents will be demanding he changes policy on tax, immigration and human rights.
Without necessarily intending to, Luntz has confirmed that Conservative fortunes are beginning to turn.
The polls which week in, week out have given Labour a 20 plus point unassailable lead are beginning to look a bit more palatable.
How so?
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Well just a few weeks ago Luntz was in Parliament with a very different prediction.
He told Conservative MPs then that any of them with a 15,000 majority or less should forget it and they had already lost their seats.
So put quite simply, Luntz’s vision of a Tory Armageddon has been relegated to a plague on Tories – he has almost halved the point where political careers are ended from 15,000 to 8,000.
While the prediction is bad still and the polls are not exactly great, it does reflect a genuine change in the political weather.
As Express.co.uk reported last week the tracker poll by Techne UK has shown that the Labour lead has dropped three points in a week.
While Techne UK put Labour’s lead at 18 points and Opinium one yesterday said it was just 10 percent.
That poll may be an outlier but it represents a huge leap for the Tories under the Prime Minister’s leadership.
As one source close to the Prime Minister told Express.co.uk: “We are planning on doing some big things, it’s going to open people’s eyes.
“This is more than winnable and once we get to 10 points and below in the polls it’s going to put huge pressure on Starmer and Labour but it is also going to give our side belief.”
It may well be that, as Luntz points out, Labour are offering very little substantial and when they do – as Sir Keir Starmer tried with illegal immigration last month – the new policy falls apart quickly.
Starmer is not exactly inspiring either.
But there is also something to be said for Sunak tacking to the right – rowing back on some of the more extreme Net Zero policies banning gas boilers and diesel or petrol vehicles.
Backing his Home Secretary Suella Braverman when she called for a new look at whether the UK wants to belong to the European Convention of Human Rights or Refugee Convention which is stopping the UK from tackling the illegal migration crisis.
The Prime Minister will come under immense pressure this week to adopt more policies from the right including tax cuts – and the evidence suggests that it may be the path to election victory.
But that debate will play out over the next few months.
For now the doom of Frank Luntz proves to the Prime Minister that he can turn things around and win next year’s general election.
