The Conservatives are in “deep electoral trouble” following the by-elections, according to a top pollster.
Professor Sir John Curtice said the results as a whole show the Conservatives are 21 percentage points behind, which is comparable to the national polling.
The party narrowly held Uxbridge and South Ruislip but lost Selby and Ainsty to Labour and Somerton and Frome to the Lib Dems which were both previously safe seats.
Prof Curtice told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Taken in the round, these by-election results do suggest that the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble, as the opinion polls have been telling us.”
The polling guru said the Tories “should not take too much comfort” from their win in Boris Johnson’s former constituency.
He highlighted how the new Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell admitted his win was due to fury at Sadiq Khan’s expansion of London’s ultra-low emission zone (ULEZ), without mentioning the PM’s five pledges which include stopping small boats and halving inflation.
Prof Curtice said: “Certainly if you accept the interpretation of the Conservative victory which Mr Tuckwell basically said this was entirely to do with the ULEZ issue and did not mention at all that this was evidence that Mr Sunak’s five tests and pursuing the people’s priorities that it was evidence of voters being won over by this.
“Perhaps he didn’t get the script from Conservative central office.
“But even if you include what happened in that by-election, and you take the three by-elections together, the average drop in Conservative support is 21 points, currently the decline in Conservative support in the polls is 18 points.
“In other words, taken as a piece the three by-elections are consistent with the depressing message of the opinion polls that the Conservatives are behind.”
But Prof Curtice said Labour must ask why its hold on the electorate is “apparently so weak” that when a local issue like ULEZ comes up they “don’t perform as they should”.
