The latest poll of Westminster voting intention gave Rishi Sunak a major boost this afternoon, after suggesting there’s been a big swing from Labour to the Tories in just one week. The survey by Deltapoll shows the gap between the two main parties has shrunk by 13 points since this time last week.
Labour’s poll lead is down from 50 percent to 45 percent, meanwhile the Tories have leapt by 8 points from 27 percent to 35 percent.
The Lib Dems have fallen back two points to 7 percent, despite their first in-person conference taking place in York over the weekend.
According to an analysis released by Deltapoll, according to their historical voting tracker, “the speed at which the gap between the two main parties is widening appears to be slowing down.”
Over the last week, Keir Starmer’s personal ratings have also taken a hit, falling five points to +7.
Rishi Sunak’s personal popularity has risen by two points over the same period, from -11 to -9.
The poll, which gives Labour a mere 10-point lead, stands as an outlier at the moment, with multiple other polls over the last week giving Labour leads of anywhere between 16 and 25 points.
Another poll published just 40 minutes after the shock Deltapoll showed quite a different story.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies polled Labour with a 21-point lead over the Conservatives, showing the Tories to have fallen by one point since their budget.
Political observers warned against making conclusions based on the single DeltaPoll poll, saying it may well prove an outlier.
However James Johnson, who ran polling for Theresa May’s No. 10 operation, said the mere 10-point lead is “very significant”, and if other polls started replicating such a result the 2024 election “is on”.
READ MORE: Rishi Sunak’s personal popularity rockets among voters
The good news for Rishi Sunak comes ahead of what could be his most difficult week in office this year, as he tries holding the Tory party together despite divisions over Boris Johnson and Northern Ireland.
No. 10 is bracing for a rebellion over the newly-negotiated Windsor Framework with the EU, as it attempts to resolve Brexit problems in Northern Ireland.
While the Eurosceptic group of Tory MPs, the ERG, is yet to publish an opinion on the framework, last week sources within the group told the Express they are ready to rebel.
Despite the warning from Brexit hardliners within the Tory party, late last week it was reported Downing Street is “confident” that a maximum of 20 Tories will rebel, come the vote on Wednesday after Prime Minister’s Questions.
Public divisions within the party will likely harm the party’s perception, and popularity, in future opinion polls.
Boris Johnson also threatens to re-open wounds within the party, as he braces to face a grilling from the Commons’ Privileges Committee over whether he lied to the House over Partygate.
If the Committee reports he did mislead the house, and recommends a suspension, MPs will have to vote on whether to punish the former PM, potentially triggering a by-election and seeing Boris lose his seat in Parliament.
While the government has confirmed they would not whip Conservative MPs on how to vote on whether to punish Mr Johnson, the process will once again lay bare the divisions among Tory MPs.
