Speculation is mounting that Reform UK could cause “a political earthquake” in next week’s Wellingborough by-election after bookmakers suddenly slashed the odds of the party’s candidate Ben Habib.
Mr Habib entered the race at a distant third favourite of 66/1 last month but as the voting date on February 15 has approached his campaign has appeared to have gained momentum.
After declaring that the by-election is “a referendum on Rishi Sunak’s government”, Mr Habib has suddenly found himself installed as the clear second favourite at just 8/1, a dramatic fall in his odds as money piled on for him to win.
Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate Helen Harrison, partner of the former MP Peter Bone, has seen her odds drift out from single figures to 19/1 amid concerns that the traditional Tory vote has gone on strike or switched to Reform UK.
It comes just days after Express.co.uk revealed a survey of 2,086 people who were registered Conservative members when Rishi Sunak became leader in 2022 which suggested half would consider voting Reform and 15 percent have switched to become members of Reform already.
Mr Habib told Express.co.uk: “The reason the odds have come in so dramatically is that people in Wellingborough have realised that the only party that stands a chance of reversing the tide of destruction delivered by the Tories and continued by the Labour Party is Reform UK.
“Both the Tories and Labour believe in open borders, cheap imported Labour and undercutting of the British workforce.”
He added: “Inevitably we heading for economic and cultural extinction if we don’t vote out the Tories and Labour. We need a complete renewal for British values and the British people.”
He accused the main parties of “bankrupting Britain” and said people in Wellingborough had understood the message that “Reform is the only option if you want to save this country and care about its future and your children’s future”.
The by-election was called after former Tory Brexiteer Peter Bone was subject to a recall petition after he was suspended from Parliament over bullying claims.
In 2019 he polled more than 32,000 votes in the constituency with 62.2 percent of the vote and a majority of 18,540 but now Labour are the overwhelming favourites to win.
Tory strategists have told MPs to stay away from helping in the campaign, but a few have defied orders with Dame Priti Patel supporting Ms Harrison and Sir John Hayes due to join activists.
However, one Tory on the ground told Express.co.uk: “We have had a lot of our voters saying they will not vote but not many have said they will switch which is actually good news and means we might do better than expected.”
A former minister told Express.co.uk: “I think the leadership understand that the bad results in Wellingborough and [a second by-election] Kingswood are baked in. They do not want any effort put in so they can say ‘we were always going to lose anyway’ in the hope colleagues don’t call for a leadership election.”
But one opposition MP told Express.co.uk that the recent “playing footsy with Nigel Farage by the Tories” suggests that “there might be some sort of deal to be done with Reform”.
Another Conservative MP said: “If Reform do win or we come third in both by-elections to them then it would confirm our worst nightmares about what is happening to our vote. Then serious questions will need to be asked.”
