Nicola Sturgeon’s “fateful decision” to step down as Scottish First Minister has had “quite substantial political consequences” for the SNP, according to a leading pollster.
Humza Yousaf replaced Ms Sturgeon as SNP leader and Scottish First Minister after she announced her shock resignation in February.
But Professor Sir John Curtice said Mr Yousaf is “nothing like as popular” with voters as his predecessor was.
He told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland programme: “The SNP now finds itself with a leader, Humza Yousaf, who is nothing like as popular as his predecessor.
“People don’t think he is doing the job as well as people thought Nicola Sturgeon was doing it, even towards the latter days of her role as first minister.”
Sir John, who is professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and a senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research, said the public are “now much more likely to think the SNP are divided” following the bitter leadership race to replace Ms Sturgeon.
As 2023 draws to an end, the polling expert said the SNP has found itself “challenged for the position of Scotland’s most popular party in a way they have not really been since they first entered power at Holyrood in 2007, or indeed became Scotland’s dominant party at Westminster at the 2015 general election”.
Sir John said support for the nationalist party was “still running at around 43 per cent” when Ms Sturgeon quit and was “only a little bit down on what it was in the 2019 general election”.
But he added that it “is now running at about 36 per cent”, and the party is “only just” ahead of Labour in the opinion polls.
Sir John said backing for independence has not changed, with polls continuing to show that on average almost half of Scots would vote Yes in another referendum.
But he added that some supporters of independence are switching to Labour.
Sir John said: “The SNP are no longer dominating the support of those who are in favour of independence, some of them are now saying they’re going to vote Labour, as illustrated by the Rutherglen by-election.”
Labour’s Michael Shanks won the Rutherglen seat in October with a swing of more than 20 per cent from the SNP.
With a general election almost certain to take place in 2024, Sir John said it could result in “radical change south of the border”, with victory for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.
He added: “North of the border, also we could see Labour making significant progress and thereby increasing Labour’s chances of being able to get an overall majority at Westminster.”
