This week’s latest tracker poll has revealed that Rishi Sunak’s worst nightmare of Reform UK splitting the vote on the right of politics is coming true.
According to this week’s survey of 1,628 voters by Techne UK, Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party) led by Richard Tice has hit the highest total they have recorded for them of 11%.
The findings came as voters went to the polls in two by-elections yesterday with the Tories losing safe seats to Labour which also provided significant support for Reform UK.
Reform won 13% in Wellingborough and its 10.5% in Kingston was enough to split the vote and allow Labour to win.
The findings also reveal a much deeper problem for the Conservatives with 17% of their 2019 voter base now supporting Reform. This compares to a mere 13% switching to Labour.
According to the survey only 44% of 2019 Tory voters would vote for the party again with 11% uncertain and 8% saying they would not vote.
Privately, election strategists in the Conservatives believe that they need to get the 36% who have switched to Reform or are “on strike” back and they can win the next general election.
One senior figure noted: “There s next to no Conservative to Labour switching”.
The Techne poll did offer a little hope for Mr Sunak even though the vote share was down one point for the Tories to 23%. The gap with Labour shrank to 19% because, after a terrible week with a major row on antisemitism, Keir Starmer’s party lost two points to go to 42%.
Reform went up one to 11% with the Lib Dems also on 11% and the Greens went up one to 7%.
According to Electoral Calculus on this poll Labour would have a record majority of 246 and the Tories would be reduced to 122 seats.
Reform UK leader Richard Tice described the Techne finding as “great”.
He noted that of all the polling companies Techne had always given Reform lower vote shares than most of its rivals.
Reform deputy leader Ben Habib said that Reform “will be challenging the main parties in the future” after his 13% record showing in Wellingborough.
Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “These are very complicated times for both the main political parties in the UK today. With Labour embroiled in controversy over alleged anti-Semitic statements by a number of their parliamentary candidates the Conservatives continue to struggle with ongoing bad news specifically related to cost of living issues-today we learned that the country has had its second quarter of negative growth and as such has now slipped into a technical recession.
“Our tracker poll released today clearly highlights both Labour and Conservative problems.
“Given the difficulties both Labour and Conservatives faced this last week it is not surprising this result, but what will happen in the coming weeks will prove if this is a turning point or only a stop and go for the two main parties’ consensus.”
