Some things in life are unequivocally divisive – from the brilliant/boring Oppenheimer movie to Coldplay’s back catalogue (musical genius or underwhelming and overhyped?).
Then, of course, there are local elections.
For the politically engaged or those who simply believe in the vital importance of the democratic process, voting yesterday was non-negotiable. For the rest, it was at best a protest vote or they avoided going to the polls altogether.
Only about a third of electors were expected to vote – a figure that could have been as low as 13 percent in some places. The idea of voting for a cash-strapped council that doesn’t have a spare farthing to fix a pothole is hardly an incentive to drag the electorate out of their homes.
Meanwhile, those who forgot to bring photo ID may well have decided it was hardly worth a return trip, especially with a box set and cold beer offering alternative entertainment.
Which is why, given the traditionally low turnout and general apathy towards local elections, frantic suggestions that they serve as a reflection of what will happen when Rishi Sunak does go to the country are surely somewhat premature.
That’s not to say that the Tories didn’t go into yesterday’s vote with the cards stacked against them.
Trailing in the polls by 20 percent, psephologists predicted that the Conservatives would lose 500 of the 2,636 seats contested across 107 English councils.
And since voters were also electing 10 metro mayors, a bad set of results will be a particularly stinging blow for the Government. Should Conservative mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen lose, the grumble from Mr Sunak’s party may erupt into a roar – and a call for a leadership election.
Already, the results have been dire – including Labour taking Rushmoor from the Tories after a quarter of a century of Conservative control. Other gains so far in key general election battlegrounds include Thurrock and Redditch.
But even if the drubbing far surpasses expectations, Rishi Sunak shouldn’t be so quick to throw in the towel and start confirming guest lecture gigs on the cruise ship circuit just yet.
There is of course the seismic loss of the Blackpool South by-election to Labour. Chris Webb secured a massive 26 percent swing to become the newest MP in the Commons, with the Conservative candidate only just pushing Reform into third place by 117 votes.
It’s also the seventh parliamentary seat the Tories have lost in a by-election since Mr Sunak became PM in October 2022 – six of which have now been won by Labour
But like all by-elections, this wasn’t about choosing a government. So one isolated constituency result is hardly a barometer for the other 649 when voting occurs simultaneously. And, of course, in the local elections, it was not the whole country that was voting.
What’s more, history also suggests that local elections don’t always provide a crystal ball for a subsequent general election.
In 1983, the Tories only managed a three-point lead in the local elections, but battered Labour by 16 points in the general election four weeks later.
More recently, in 2019 the Tories lost control of 44 councils and 1,330 seats. This was when an embattled Theresa May was in office. By the autumn, she was gone, and in the general election, Boris Johnson swept into No 10 in a landslide victory.
So even though Keir Starmer will marshall Thursday’s polling as a sign that the opinion polls are right and that Labour will soon be back in power for the first time in 14 years, he should not perhaps be quite so hasty.
Because, ironically for Keir Starmer, there’s one issue above all that could undermine the assured view of a Labour victory. An issue that many voters may well wrestle with as they slip into the privacy of the general election polling booth. And that is whether they really want Sir Keir Starmer – a man who seems to have no clear vision other than a propensity for U-turns – as their next prime minister.
Do they really want a man with an ideas bypass who is only 99 percent sure a woman can’t have a penis holding the highest office in the land? Or to listen to that nasal whine delivering tax-heavy solutions to evergreen problems?
Disaffected voters may well want to give the Tories a good kicking at the general election for what they perceive to be a persistent failure to deliver effective governance – from an inability to stop the boats or deal with the housing crisis to a desperately failing health service. Or they may well simply be bored and ready for change.
But in the confessional silence of the general election ballot booth, there could be a recognition that Keir Starmer as prime minister is as antithetical as it is distasteful a prospect.
Bad enough that he is a man with little substance and even fewer ideas – not least when it comes to encouraging growth. But will the weathervane Starmer be able to see off an encroaching hard Left once he gains office?
The militant flank of the party may well have been restive while their seemingly moderate and establishment leader ushers them into power. But once in situ, how long before they exact a full-on political coup and bloodlessly jettison Starmer, since he cannot contain his activists?
Meanwhile, let’s not forget some of the good stuff for the current Government. Interest rates are falling, mortgage rates could follow and the economy is finally, albeit slowly, beginning to pick up. All of which might, come the general election, give further reason for pause.
So while local opinion may suggest the Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout, the bets should be – must – still be off.
