“In other words, the headline of Labour pummelling the Conservatives doesn’t account for voters who chose neither of the big parties – or crucially those who chose to stay cosy at home. It is as much about Conservative voters sitting on their hands as it is them transferring to Labour.
“There is important evidence about the appeal of Reform UK, who have strong ambitions, whether or not Nigel Farage ever concludes his game of footsie.”
Mr Farage has long been rumoured to join Reform UK, but has so far denied any intention to do so.
The by-election results were the best ever for the up-and-coming party, securing 13 percent in Wellingborough and 10.4 percent in Kingswood.
This reflects its polling at a national level, and analysts suggest many of these votes are coming from former Tory voters looking to put their faith in a new candidate.
According to polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice, for every voter who has switched since 2019 from Conservative to Labour, another has switched to Reform UK.
It’s a sign that Reform UK’s strategy of appealing to disenfranchised voters, unsatisfied with both main parties, is paying off.
Speaking after the by-elections, former cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said the Conservatives needed to focus on appealing to voters who had turned to Reform. He said there was “a lot of common ground” between the two parties.
He added that support for Mr Sunak remained “solid”, claiming “by-elections don’t change that.”
Nigel Farage, who is popular among the more right wing of the Tory party, could especially boost Reform UK’s performance if he returns.
He is currently the honorary president of the party, but has said he makes no plans to stand for election. It would be his eighth attempt to be elected to the House of Commons.
Mr Sunak has argued to voters that supporting Reform UK only increases the chances of Labour succeeding in a general election.
Jane Stevenson, the MP for Wolverhampton North East, posted on social media that it was “interesting that Tory and Reform votes combined would have kept Labour out in Kingswood”.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “A vote for anyone who isn’t the Conservative candidate, whether that’s Reform or anyone else, is just a vote to put Keir Starmer in power.
“That’s the actual choice at the general election, between me and him, between the Conservatives and Labour.”
