Israel has been warned its current strategy to root out Hamas from the Middle East could backfire, provoking “unmanageable public solidarity and anger” against Israeli forces.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to eradicate the fundamentalist group as he green-lit a campaign of air raids levelling both military and civilian buildings in the Gaza Strip.
He also authorized a siege of the region, cutting off water supplies and electricity despite widespread international condemnation because of the impact the measures would have on Gaza residents.
Iran threatened to take action to end the bombings, fueling fears Tehran’s forces could become involved and cause the conflict between Hamas and Israel to collapse the whole Middle East into war.
But Dr. Seyed Ali Alavi told Daily Express US the Islamic Republic is unlikely to trigger a war, instead choosing to “caution” Israel that its current strategy would only fuel division and anger.
He said: “Iran’s leadership, particularly Ayatollah Khamenei, clarified in his recent speech that Iran wasn’t responsible for the recent conflict.
“Notably, he refrained from explicitly naming Hamas but reiterated Iran’s support for the Palestinian cause.
“The Iranian leadership’s objective is to caution the global community about the escalating emotions in the Middle East.
“Continuing collective punishment against the people of Gaza may lead to unmanageable public solidarity and anger.”
Israel initially suggested Tehran could have facilitated the incursion of Hamas militants but international intelligence quickly shut down the suggestion.
Dr. Ali Alavi noted Iran does not have a history of direct involvement in conflicts past its borders and its threats are likely part of a posturing strategy aimed at pushing Israel into standing down.
The SOAS academic continued: “Iran’s primary foreign policy stance is non-engagement in wars beyond its borders.
“This was evident when the Taliban assumed power in Afghanistan, provoking Iran, and during the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict.
Since 2012, Israel has acknowledged carrying out aerial attacks on Iranian-related interests in Syria, yet Iran refrained from retaliation.
“It is imperative to seek a political solution to the Gaza tragedy and avoid falling into the trap of assigning blame.”
Dr. Tobias Borck from London’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) told Daily Express US that Iran would rely on non-state partners picking up a direct fight with Israel rather than become involved on the ground.
Dr. Borck said: “What is a much more realistic threat is that some of these partners of Iran might enter the conflict in a more substantial way than they already have.”
He suggested Hezbollah, the Lebanese political party and militant group, was the most likely candidate to openly challenge Israel because of its proximity and capabilities.
Hezbollah forces have indeed already clashed with Israeli Defense Forces since shortly after Hamas launched their incursion on October 7.
Members of the US-designated terrorist group launched artillery shells from Syria into northern Israel, sparking an immediate response from the IDF.
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