A mounting standoff in northern Israeli frontlines, driven by divisions within Hezbollah, has raised concerns about the possibility of the US being sucked into a broader regional conflict.
The situation highlights a growing split within Hezbollah, with one faction in southern Lebanon pushing for war with Israel and another, based in Beirut, urging caution to avoid regional complications.
The outcome of this internal power struggle could decide whether a second front opens in northern Israel, potentially pulling the US into the conflict and triggering a bigger crisis.
Since the October 7 incident, exchanges of hostilities between Hezbollah and the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have escalated. But both sides have been careful not to cross unwritten lines that could lead to a more serious conflict.
Professor Manuel Trajtenberg, from Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), says the situation in the north is tense and hard to predict.
Notably, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has been unusually quiet since the incident, hinting that he hasn’t decided on the group’s next move.
Nasrallah, who experienced Hezbollah’s losses in the 2006 war with Israel, understands the challenges of rebuilding an organisation. Many believe he is following Tehran’s orders to preserve Hezbollah as a “deterrent” against Western actions toward Iran.
Prof Trajtenberg said: “The current understanding – and everything is very fluid – is that Iran doesn’t want Hezbollah to attack.
“They see Hezbollah and their missiles as a weapon for judgment day and they don’t want it to be wasted because of what’s happening with Hamas… Iran doesn’t care about anything but about the survival of the regime.”
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