Guatemalan presidential candidate wins in landslide but political elite could prevent him from taking office

Guatemala’s Bernardo Arévalo was resoundingly elected to be the country’s next president Sunday, but a legal case could prevent him from assuming power in the corruption-plagued Central American country.

With 100% of votes counted, preliminary results gave Arévalo 58% of the vote — over former first lady Sandra Torres’s 37% — but questions remain as to whether he would be allowed to assume power, as the Attorney General’s Office could suspend his party’s legal status.

Arévalo, an anti-corruption crusader whose win would be seen as a reprimand to the governing elite over widespread allegations of corruption, is a member of the Seed Movement party, which remains under investigation by the Attorney General’s Office for signatures it obtained years earlier to officially register.

“We know that there is a political persecution underway that is being carried out through the institutions and prosecutor’s offices and judges that have been corruptly co-opted,” Arévalo said Sunday night. “We want to think that the force of this victory is going to make it clear that there is no place for the attempts to derail the electoral process. The Guatemalan people have spoken forcefully.”

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The official results will still have to be certified.

According to Arévalo, outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei congratulated him and told him that they would begin planning the transition the day after the results were certified, but it is not immediately clear whether they will be, as the AG office’s investigation into the party is still ongoing.

Last month, the Attorney General’s Office announced that it was investigating the signatures gathered by Arévalo’s Seed Movement party, and a judge briefly suspended the party’s legal status before a higher court intervened.

Edmond Mulet, a former Guatemalan diplomat and president of Congress, said the prosecutor’s office took similar against him when he competed in the first round of the presidential election as the candidate for the Cabal party.

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He said that prosecutors opened three cases against him and his party, in what he described as a safeguard in case he had made it to the run-off.

“In any other country in the world, the people would have been out in the streets a long time ago, but in Guatemala there’s another solution: migration,” Mulet said, pointing to large populations of people fleeing to the U.S. and other Central American countries. “That’s the pressure valve. Elsewhere, this would have exploded already.”

Hundreds of thousands of Guatemalans have emigrated to the United States in recent years. The Biden administration has pointed to Guatemala’s corruption as a major factor behind the migration.

Mulet sees at least two likely scenarios resulting.

In the first, he sees the Seed Movement being canceled and Arévalo being allowed to assume the presidency without a party.

Such a scenario would have dire effects on his party, including his representatives being barred from holding leadership positions or leading committees in the Congress.

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If that results, Arévalo could almost immediately expect attempts from Congress to remove him from office. He would subsequently struggle to advance any legislation.

In the other scenario, Mulet described the Attorney General’s Office succeeding in canceling the legal status of the Seed Movement.

This could potentially result in the AG office arguing that because the party was improperly registered, everything that occurred afterward, including Arévalo’s nomination, is nullified and he cannot assume the presidency.

Another possible situation could include Giammattei leaving office, as constitutionally mandated on January 14. Should there not be a president-elect — or vice president-elect — to take his place, the next in line would be the president of the Congress.

The president of the Congress would then present a list of three names, possibly including his or her own, to Congress, and lawmakers would select a temporary president for the nation.

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Eduardo Núñez, the Guatemala resident senior director for the National Democratic Institute, described the country’s polarization and the judicialization of the electoral process as completely new legal territory that does not have a clear result.

A new election could be called sooner, he said.

Mulet speculated, before Sunday’s results were known, that a large margin of victory for Arévalo could force his opponents to intervene or potentially think twice about doing so.

“I think they’ve been testing Guatemalans . . . to see if they’re going to mobilize,” Mulet said.

A big question remained about how Guatemalans could react to any government actions that appear to go against the will of the voters.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.