Rishi Sunak could be facing a nightmare scenario on Friday morning with a crucial by-election on Thursday potentially giving his party one of its worst ever results.
Reform UK’s Ben Habib, a former Brexity Party MEP and Tory donor, is being tipped by some to pull off an extraordinary victory in the Wellingborough by-election.
While Labour Gen Kitchen is still the overwhelming favourite, her past support for rejoining the EU and open borders immigration has left a question mark over whether she can win over voters in a strongly pro-Brexit seat.
According to Labour canvassing returns, their candidate is set to win but “Reform and the Tories are neck and neck” for second place.
Meanwhile, Reform UK has reported that their canvassers “have been unable to find anybody voting Conservative” but “a good number” who will vote Reform.
Mr Habib told Express.co.uk: “It’s game on! We can win this and it will send a message to the Tories that their time is up. We can shock the political world.”
He has already declared that the by-election is “a referendum on the Sunak Government”.
Sources have suggested that he will only be able to pull off a victory if there is a low turnout out with most of the previous Conservative voters “going on strike” combined with a number “switching to Reform”.
This was the scenario in the recent Mid Staffordshire by-election where Labour overturned a massive majority without really increasing the party’s vote after around 20,000 Tory voters from the general election stayed at home.
According to a Tory source who have helped with canvassing: “The main problem is not our voters wwitching but most of them going on strike and staying at home.”
Respected pollster Andrew Hawkins told Express.co.uk: “I don’t think Reform can win Wellingborough but I do think they can beat the Conservatives.”
Wellingborough gave the Conservatives a 18,540 majority in 2019 with 63 percent of the vote so would represent a huge defeat if they lose it and even worse if they were reduced to third.
The by-election was called because former Tory MP Peter Bone was subject to a recall petition after being suspended from Parliament. His partner Helen Harrison, a councillor and former Brexit campaigner, is the Conservative candidate.
The Tories are also being tipped to lose another safe seat of Kingswood in Gloucestershire where Reform’s Rupert Lowe is also hoping to push them into third place.
Conservative MPs have warned privately that two third places could reopen questions on Rishi Sunak’s leadership.
One former minister told Express.co.uk: “It feels like everyone has given up and is waiting for the inevitable defeat.”
Another warned: “If there is a move to get rid of the PM then it can happen very quickly.”
Another MP suggested: “If we get two thirds then colleagues may get to the point that a change of leader cannot be any worse than what we have now.”
But another former minister said: “I think the May local elections will be the point when colleagues decide wheyher to stick with the PM or not. Although arguably it will be too late to change at that point.”
