A European Union (EU) poll conducted ahead of the 2024 European Parliament elections predicted a seismic shift to the right across the continent. The poll, released by the EU Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), suggests that far-right parties are poised to make significant gains, with populist radical right groups expected to secure victories in several member states.
According to the ECFR data, anti-European populists are projected to lead the polls in nine key member states, including Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia.
In an additional nine countries, these parties are expected to claim second or third place, marking a widespread surge of right-wing influence.
The implications of this anticipated “sharp right turn” are far-reaching. The ECFR predicts that almost half of the European Parliament seats will be held by Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) outside the traditional centrist groups, forming a populist right coalition comprising Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical right representatives. This coalition could wield a majority for the first time, significantly altering European-level policies.
One of the key areas expected to be impacted is environmental policy. The newfound majority, largely composed of right-wing parties, is likely to resist ambitious EU actions to combat climate change. This resistance could hinder the EU’s ability to make progressive foreign policy choices on environmental issues.
The major winner in this rightward shift is anticipated to be the radical right Identity and Democracy (ID) group. The ID group is expected to gain a staggering 40 seats, making it the third-largest group in the new European Parliament with almost 100 MEPs. This growth poses a significant challenge to the existing balance of power within the EU.
In contrast, centrist groups are predicted to face losses. The Renew Europe (RE) group, which includes French President Emmanuel Macron’s party, is expected to see a decline from 101 to 86 seats. Similarly, the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) is projected to lose seats, falling from 71 to 61. On the other hand, the Left group is expected to increase its representation from 38 to 44 seats.
As Europe braces itself for this political upheaval, the repercussions of the right-wing surge are likely to extend beyond national borders, shaping the trajectory of EU policies and its global standing.
The June European Parliament elections are poised to be a pivotal moment in the continent’s political landscape, with potential far-reaching consequences.
