A provocative attack on Ukraine from Belarusian soil is a real possibility and risks taking the war in a new direction, a top defence official has warned.
Andriy Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, said a cunning Kremlin false flag operation should not be ruled out, given the large number of Russian troops and resources located in Belarus.
While outlining a different scenario, Yusov echoed comments made by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) last week, which said intel indicates a plan to bring a third country into the conflict.
The SBU, citing intelligence gathered from sources including a captured Russian serviceman, said saboteurs will target the Mozyr Oil Refinery in Belarus and blame it on Ukraine.
Yusov told Ukrinform: “Regarding the missiles from the territory of Belarus, it would probably be an electronic launch or an imitation of a launch, since Russian troops, forces and means for various kinds of provocations are stationed on the territory of this country in order to draw it into a war against Ukraine.
“Physically, it could not be there, but everything could be arranged as if the launches took place from the territory of Belarus.”
Landlocked Belarus, a strong ally of Moscow, borders Ukraine to the south, Russia to the east, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the north.
On Telegram, the SBU said “a sabotage and intelligence group” of Russian special forces has been sent to Belarus under the guise of being Wagner Group mercenaries, ahead of an attack on the oil refinery.
“SBU employees received information about a planned terrorist attack in Belarus from several sources,” the intelligence service said.
“In particular, [information was gained] from the testimony of a serviceman of Russia, who was taken prisoner by Ukrainian defenders in the Zaporizhzhia direction.”
Last week, Poland deployed fighters to its border after accusing its neighbour of violating their airspace, which Minsk denied.
There is significant concern over “extremely dangerous” Wagner fighters stationed in Belarus, with Poland’s prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki arguing they’ve been moved to “destabilise NATO”.
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