In a resounding victory for the opposition parties in Poland, Donald Tusk, the head of the Civic Coalition, emerged as the likely choice for the country’s new prime minister following the weekend parliamentary elections.
While Tusk’s return to power marks a significant shift in Poland’s political landscape, it also raises concerns about the potential clashes between the country and the European Union (EU) under his leadership.
Tusk, a staunch pro-market and pro-EU liberal centrist has a history of advocating for the EU’s agenda.
His return to Polish politics has been met with anticipation among EU supporters but has stirred apprehension within certain quarters in Poland. One of the primary concerns lies in the realm of migration policy, an issue that has deeply divided EU member states.
Sławomir Domaradzki, a political analyst at Warsaw University, told Euractiv.pl: “The current opposition’s coming to power does not mean that Warsaw’s position on several key issues would change as dramatically as Brussels may expect.”
The Law and Justice Party (PiS), the outgoing ruling party in Poland, had staunchly opposed the EU’s proposed migration and asylum reform.
The PiS government refused to accept asylum seekers and resisted contributing financially to manage the burden of irregular migration.
During the election campaign, PiS warned the Polish populace that a Tusk-led government would yield to EU pressure, potentially allowing an influx of migrants into Poland.
Tusk’s Civic Coalition, on the other hand, has indicated a willingness to cooperate with EU institutions, leading to concerns that they might be more receptive to EU migration policies.
However, Tusk’s party has vehemently denied such claims, with their spokesman Jan Grabiec saying: “We will certainly not agree to any solutions that would lead to the rising number of migrants in Poland.”
Apart from migration, Tusk’s victory has broader implications for Poland-EU relations. Tusk has pledged to address the country’s rule-of-law issues with the EU, a move that some critics view as an attempt to bring Poland back under the influence of the EU’s legislation.
This alignment could potentially unlock €35 billion in post-pandemic funds promised by the EU, but it may also raise questions about Poland’s sovereignty.
Furthermore, Tusk’s return to power could breathe new life into the EU’s integrationist project, potentially widening the window for the bloc’s further enlargement, including countries like Ukraine.
While this prospect excites many EU supporters, it also rings alarm bells for critics of the union, especially in Western European countries like Germany, where populist and Eurosceptic sentiments are on the rise.
As Poland braces for this new chapter under Tusk’s leadership, the EU faces a delicate balancing act. While celebrating the weakening of Right-populist and Eurosceptic forces in the East, EU leaders must also contend with growing anti-EU sentiments in the West.
